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618
FXUS61 KLWX 070636
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
236 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Dry conditions are forecast through Saturday as high pressure builds
over the region. A slow moving upper trough approaches the area from
the Great Lakes Saturday night into Sunday leading to more unsettled
conditions.
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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A cold front pushed east of the area early this morning, with some
lingering mid-level cloudiness that should dissipate after sunrise.
Dry conditions expected today as high pressure builds into the
region. Highs reach the upper 70s to mid 80s. W/WNW winds increase
to around 10-15 mph, with gusts around 20 mph through late
afternoon. Mostly clear tonight as lows settle in the 50s to low 60s.
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.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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A dry first half of the weekend is expected as surface high pressure
passes south of the area during the day, then over the western
Atlantic Saturday night. Near normal temperatures in the upper 70s
to lower 80s once again, with Saturday night lows a bit milder - in
the low to mid 60s.

A weak cold front looks to cross the area Sunday, bringing the next
chance for showers and a few thunderstorms. Rain chances will be
around 30-40pct, though any showers/storms look to remain isolated
to scattered given the system lacks deep moisture. Highs Sunday
afternoon reach the low to mid 80s, with 70s in the mountains. Dry
conditions return Sunday night.
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&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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High pressure will build briefly into the region on Monday. There is
a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm, mainly during the
afternoon or early evening, as a front will not be too far to the
east of the region. Highs middle 70s in the west and lower 80s in
the east.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will gradually increase Tuesday and
into Wednesday as high pressure moves east and the front nearby
becomes a warm front and connects to an approaching low pressure
system from the southwest. This low is expected to move northeast
into the mid-Atlantic later Tuesday into Tuesday night. An
associated cold front trailing this low could bring a reinforcement
of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday into Wednesday evening. Highs
Tuesday middle to upper 70s. Highs Wednesday near 80 to lower 80s.

By Thursday, the low pressure system and its associated cold front
move east. This will allow for high pressure to develop and build in
from the west. Dry conditions should ensue with high temperatures
lower to middle 80s.
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&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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VFR conditions are expected through the weekend as high pressure
passes south of the area. Today, west winds gust up to 20-25 knots
from late morning to early evening. Lighter west to northwest winds
around 10 knots over the weekend.

A weak cold front is forecast to cross the area Sunday, bringing
isolated to scattered showers, and possibly a few thunderstorms.
Outside of any showers/storms, VFR conditions are expected.

VFR conditions Monday and Monday night. Winds northwest 5 to 10
knots through the period. VFR conditions for the most part Tuesday
into Tuesday night. Any showers or drenching thunderstorm Tuesday
into Tuesday evening could bring a brief period of MVFR conditions.
Winds northwest becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots Tuesday into
Tuesday night.
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&&

.MARINE...
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A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the northern Chesapeake
Bay for this afternoon as west winds gust to around 20 knots.
Elsewhere, gusts around 15 knots are expected, though occasionally
higher gusts are possible.

Winds decrease this evening and remain below SCA criteria through
the weekend. A weak cold front crosses the local waters Sunday
afternoon, bringing scattered showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms.

No marine hazards expected Monday through Tuesday night. Winds
northwest 5 to 10 knots Monday through Tuesday. Winds becoming more
southeast 5 to 10 knots Tuesday night. Any showers or drenching
thunderstorms Tuesday could bring brief wind gusts over 30 knots.
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&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EDT this
     evening for ANZ530-531-538-539.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KRR
NEAR TERM...KRR
SHORT TERM...KRR
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...KRR/KLW
MARINE...KRR/KLW