-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
964
FXUS61 KRNK 131407
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1007 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in the area through tonight. A front
tracks through the mid-Atlantic Friday, before high pressure
works in again for the weekend. Temperatures remain several
degrees above normal each day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 1002 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

1) Warm and more humid today. Isolated storms possible.

Humidity starting to creep up as are temperatures, but still
close to normal for mid June. 12z RNK sounding continues to
show moisture in the 850-700 layer evidenced by scattered to
broken clouds at that level. PWATS have closed in on an inch.
Forecast soundings showing temperatures warming enough to break
the cap. A shortwave tracking across the Ohio Valley should
reach the mountains by late afternoon. Appears enough low level
moisture convergence and differential heating to produce
isolated showers and storms. High-res models vary with little to
none on some and more coverage on others. Looks like a case
where a few storms pop up this afternoon along/near the Blue
Ridge, then shift east into the foothills/piedmont by later in
the day. Again overall coverage is isolated so most stay dry and
warm with mostly to partly sunny skies.

Previous discussion...

High pressure holds over the region today, however a short wave
crosses the Appalachians this afternoon and will trigger isolated
showers and thunderstorms along and north of the Blue Ridge
escarpment. Most of the day we will be battling capping aloft
with minimal shear and instability, so not looking like anything
other than brief summertime showers with isolated thunder. Most
people will only notice an increase in humidity under variable
cloudiness.

Temperatures warm into the mid to upper 80s for most of the
area, with some upper 70s to low 80s for parts of the
mountains. Tonight, temperatures remain warm and in the upper
50s to mid 60s.

Confidence in the near term is high.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 120 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Message: Warm and mostly dry weather expected.

A cold front will approach the area with a surface trough draped
over the VA/NC piedmont Friday. The front will bring a few
showers and thunderstorms to southeast West Virginia and far
southwest Virginia late in the afternoon into early evening. The
front will then jump to the surface trough in the piedmont
during the evening. Shower activity will follow the same
pattern, falling part moving over the mountains, shadowing the
foothills and then redevelop in the piedmont. Showers in the
piedmont will track into central North Carolina around midnight.
High pressure will wedge south into the Carolinas on Saturday
and linger into Sunday. No rain is expected this weekend.

Warm southwesterly flow will help Friday`s high temperatures
warm into the 80s across the mountains and lower 90s in the
foothills and piedmont. Cool northeasterly flow will be offset
by dry air and abundant sunshine this weekend. High temperatures
will range from the upper 70s to mid 80s west of the Blue Ridge
to mid to upper 80s east.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 140 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Points:

Key Messages:

1) Hot and humid next week
2) Showers and thunderstorms possible each afternoon and evening

A ridge of high pressure is expected to drift over the area
Monday and Tuesday then move north of the area Wednesday and
Thursday. This system will bring above normal temperatures and
increase humidity through much of next week. High temperatures
each afternoon will range in the mid to upper 80s across the
mountains and low to mid 90s in the foothills and piedmont. Heat
indices values may be 3F to 6F warmer than the actual surface
temperatures. Diurnal thunderstorms are also possible each
afternoon. Storms will likely start over the mountains in the
afternoon then drift into the foothills and piedmont during the
evening.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 1002 AM EDT Thursday...

Mainly VFR expected through the 24 hour valid TAF. This
afternoon we may see isolated showers/storms mainly at
KBCB/KROA/KLYH, but chances are too low to include in TAFs.
Light SW winds through the TAF cycle.

Forecast confidence is high.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

VFR anticipated through Monday. Exceptions...chance of storms
Friday afternoon and evening that may bring sub-VFR, especially
for BLF/LWB and then LYH/DAN as storms reform west of the Blue
Ridge. In addition, morning fog will be possible in mountain and
river valleys.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SH/WP
NEAR TERM...SH/WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...SH/WP