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342
FXUS63 KTOP 300531
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1231 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-There remains a slight chance for an isolated storm south of I-35
 this afternoon and evening.

-Some showers and storms that develop southwest of the area tonight
 could move into central and southeastern KS Sunday morning.

-Several rounds of storms are possible through the upcoming week
 and high heat and humidity build on Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Early this afternoon, a cold front was located near or just south of
I-35 in east-central KS, with the 850mb front displaced slightly to
the north of the surface boundary. A cooler and drier air mass has
been moving into the forecast area behind the cold front and some
locations had experienced a good ten degree drop in dew points from
early this morning. An isolated shower or storm could still develop
in the vicinity of the front this afternoon, but have kept chances
around 20 percent for those locations.

Tonight, the surface ridge associated with the cooler/drier air
mass will continue to drift southward into northern sections of
the state, while the lingering 850mb boundary remains over the
southern portion of KS. Scattered storms look to develop well
southwest of the area as 850mb winds become more southerly,
inducing WAA and upslope flow in the vicinity of the lingering
front. That batch of storms is expected to move through central
and southeast KS while weakening Sunday morning. However, a few
showers or storms could get close enough to impact the western
and southern sections of the CWA (mainly south of a line from
Concordia to Lawrence), so have maintained those chances.
Temperatures look quite a bit cooler tomorrow with highs in the
upper 70s under some cloud cover.

Attention then turns to the upcoming holiday week, which will
feature several opportunities for thunderstorms. Isentropic ascent
could lead to the development of showers and storms late Sunday
night and early Monday. Dry conditions are then expected until the
next cold front moves into the area late Tuesday. Prior to the
arrival of that boundary, strong southerly return flow will set up
and bring a hazardous combination of heat and humidity back to the
region. Heat index values between 105 and 110 look common Tuesday
afternoon with highs near 100 degrees and dew points in the low to
mid 70s, especially in eastern KS. These conditions will also
contribute to instability building throughout the day ahead of the
approaching front. We will have to monitor trends for the potential
of severe weather (including flooding) with storms that form late
Tuesday and continue into Tuesday night.

Long range models show an active pattern during the second half of
the week with a series of troughs traversing the northern CONUS.
Thus, have POPs lingering from midweek through Friday, with the
highest chances currently looking to be Wednesday night and early
Thursday. At least slight chances for storms are in the forecast for
4th festivities, but hopefully more details will be realized and
confidence in chances will increase as that timeframe approaches.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

VFR conditions anticipated for the period. Chance for showers is
too small to mention at this time but would be high based if any
develop into the morning hours. Lower level CAA and dry air
continue to work into the area, so keeping a breeze overnight
before winds gradually veer into the morning hours.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Drake