283
FXUS63 KABR 291726
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1226 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The next opportunity for severe storms looks to be organizing on
  Monday as a low pressure system and plenty of moisture will move
  back into the region. Details on timing and threats will become
  more clear in the coming days.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Clouds are lingering a bit longer than originally anticipated
today. As a result, high temperatures for today have been lowered
slightly.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

An upper level shortwave trough currently over the region will exit
to the east this afternoon. Will then see northwest flow develop
tonight before ridging builds over the Northern Plains on Sunday.

At the surface, the region is currently between low pressure to the
east and approaching high pressure from the west. Seeing some low
cloud cover across much of North Dakota, and will likely see some of
this drift over northern South Dakota today. By this afternoon, the
high to the west will settle in over the Northern Plains, and should
then see the cloud cover begin to dissipate or exit the area. The
high will remain the dominant feature over the area tonight, then
will gradually get pushed to the east on Sunday as low pressure
slides across the Rockies. Will see a decent pressure gradient
develop between these two systems. Southeasterly winds will increase
through the day, especially across central South Dakota, where gusts
in excess of 40 mph will be possible. No precipitation is expected
today through the daytime hours Sunday.

High temperatures today will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Low
temperatures tonight will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Highs on
Sunday will be in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Sunday night we are still under an upper level ridge which will
continue to move east through Monday afternoon. Monday evening, a
trough moves in from the west bringing a chance for showers and
storms. An upper level low will track over at least part of the area
Friday. The main 3 deterministic models continue to show similar
tracks and timing to previous model runs.

SPC is highlighting the entire area in a Slight Risk of severe
storms Monday as that trough moves in from the west. Abundant
moisture will be in place due to southerly winds drawing up
moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and both the warm and cold fronts
will provide lift to help storm formation. All hazards are
possible. Showers and storms may continue into Tuesday morning.
Thursday will be the next best chance for rain as the low
approaches. 30 to 55% PoPs start Thursday morning and continue
late Thursday night before diminishing Friday morning. Storms are
possible, but severe potential is hard to determine at this time.

Temperatures through the period will be bouncing up and down from
around average to around 10 degrees below average. The coolest day
for the entire area looks to be Friday as showers dissipate but
clouds remain. Wind gusts of over 30 mph will move west to east
across the area Sunday night through the day Monday. Wind gusts look
to stay below 35 mph for the rest of the term.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR to MVFR ceilings will continue into the afternoon hours, with
most locations lifting to VFR by or shortly after 18Z. Otherwise,
winds will diminish late this afternoon and tonight before
increasing out of the southeast during the day Sunday.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KF
SHORT TERM...Parkin
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...KF