485
FXAK67 PAJK 011602 AAA
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATE
National Weather Service Juneau AK
802 AM AKDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.SHORT TERM...Vertically stacked low over the SW gulf will
eject a couple of shortwaves across the region today. This will
maintain cloudy skies, cooler temps and on/off light rain through
Tue morning. Tight pressure gradient persisted over the N
panhandle with fresh to strong breezes through N Lynn Canal and
the Klondike Hwy. Expect these winds to ease slightly late
morning/early afternoon before increasing again this evening.
Biggest change to forecast was to increase PoPs to categorical and
go with stratiform wording. Overall, forecast confidence remains
above average.

.LONG TERM...Relatively quiet forecast for the mid to extended
range period today as the upper level pattern is somewhat static.
An upper low will be getting cut off from the jet stream over the
far SW Gulf of Alaska early in the forecast and will last
throughout the period. The main axis of the jet stream meanwhile
is diverted north through the Alaska interior and Yukon Territory
by a ridge upstream of the cut off low. SE Alaska will be situated
in a quiet zone of weak ridging NE of the cut off low and south
of the main jet axis for just about the entire extended forecast
as a result.

At the surface, ridging across the Gulf of Alaska is much more
pronounced then at higher levels resulting in a distinct lack of
any major system affecting the area through next weekend. That
being said the surface ridge axis is rather flat to start off
with, and then starts to situate and strengthen itself more in the
south central gulf by next weekend keeping W to NW flow going
across the gulf and Panhandle through the period. Included in this
is a slight onshore component to the low level flow which will
work to keep at least a chance of showers (highest chances are
early in the forecast due to a weak surface through moving through
the panhandle on Tuesday) across the north and general cloudiness
across most areas through the extended from a combination of
moist marine air interacting with the terrain and marine layer low
clouds invading from the Gulf. I can not rule out some large
holes opening up in the cloud cover from time to time especially
later in the week and during the weekend, allowing the sun to warm
temperatures up move than expected at times, but a general mostly
cloudy forecast with temps in the 60s for highs is the rule of
the extended forecast today.

Little in the way of higher winds expected for the extended with
the lack of any major systems coming through. Winds along the near
coastal waters of the gulf were increased to around 20 kt NW on
Tuesday as a weak trough moves through. Otherwise, highest winds
will mainly be with sea breeze circulations when they do develop
during the afternoons and evenings.

&&

.AVIATION...Conditions will remain mostly VFR with periods of MVFR
due to short waves going through the area brining periods of
rain. Most areas will have ceilings in VFR or MVFR with the
exception of a few locations in the southern panhandle that could
experience times of IFR ceilings. Conditions may briefly improve
from MVFR to VFR between the periods of rain.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Chilkat River remains above minor flood stage due
to higher elevation snow melt. Temperatures will gradually cool
through mid week so the Chilkat River will remain near or above
minor flood stage through mid week.

Updated: The Taku River gauge began steadily rising Sun afternoon
with water temps cooling. This is indicative of a glacier dam
release. As of 7am Monday, the gauge appears to be cresting just
below bankful of 42 feet. Mariners in the region should watch for
additional debris in the water over the next couple days.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM....EAL
AVIATION...EAB/BC
HYDROLOGY...BC

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