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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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861 FXUS63 KAPX 281057 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 657 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain returns to the area this afternoon through tonight. - Showers and thunderstorms continue through Saturday. A few strong storms will be possible. - Wetter pattern moves into the Midwest region later next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 313 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Pattern Synopsis: Broad upper-level ridging will slide over the Great Lakes today as a weak shortwave embedded in the main flow progresses overhead. Subsidence provided by the aforementioned ridge will build surface high pressure into New England today as a second, much stronger wave digs across the northern Great Plains and supports a cyclone that is expected to trek across the far northern Great Lakes/southern Ontario into Saturday morning. Forecast Details: Rain returns this afternoon through tonight -- Increasing mid/high clouds will spread from west to east this morning as the aforementioned system works closer to the Great Lakes. Slight chances for light showers return to the area this afternoon where any rain may struggle to reach the ground initially with a relatively dry low-level airmass in place. Best chances for heavier showers and a few thunderstorms will come this evening and overnight as low-level moisture increases across the region. Severe storms are not anticipated. Otherwise, south winds between 10-15 mph are expected today with gusts to 20-30 mph at times into this evening. Temperatures will warm into the upper 60s and low 70s for most areas today with localized readings in the mid/upper 70s close to Saginaw Bay. Southerly low-level flow advecting a warm, moist airmass northward will keep mild temperatures in place tonight with lows in the low to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 313 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Midlevel longwave ridging with its axis currently centered over the northern Plains and an upstream shortwave over the northern Rockies will transition the Great Lakes region to a wetter pattern this weekend. Surface low pressure attached to the aformentioned low pressure will continue showers and storms at the start of the long term. After another brief return of high pressure early next week, heights lower across the northern half of the CONUS and support a quasi- wetter pattern for the second half of the long term. Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages: -Showers and thunderstorms continue through Saturday. A few strong storms will be possible: Aformentioned midlevel troughing and surface low pressure will have ongoing showers and storms at the start of the long term. Northern Michigan will be in the warm sector on Saturday with a cold front dragging across the state. Best chances of thunderstorms will be Saturday afternoon as diurnal heating could provide enough energy to generate some strong/severe thunderstorms. SPC places the entire CWA under a marginal risk for severe weather as new CAM guidance shows CAPE values around 1000 J/kg along with moderate shear values. -Wetter pattern moves into the Midwest region later next week: Midlevel troughing currently over the Gulf of Alaska will progress southeast and begin to build across the country next week. This supports a wetter pattern to return to the Great Lakes region. Showers at times can be expected after the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe driven primarily by embedded height disturbances. Too early to message QPF/details, but no evidence of heavy rainfall or impactful weather at this time. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 656 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 VFR conditions are expected to persist across northern Michigan through this afternoon as cloud cover spreads from west to east across the area. Light rain showers may also move in by early afternoon before better chances for showers arrive later this afternoon into tonight. A few thunderstorms will also be possible. CIGs are expected to gradually lower with time this afternoon into this evening as this activity moves in, likely becoming MVFR for all TAF sites besides APN this evening -- and IFR later tonight. Timing of lowered CIGs will be delayed a few hours for APN. LLWS has been included in the TAFs later this evening and tonight with strong winds just off the surface. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 2 AM EDT Saturday for LHZ346>349. Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 8 AM EDT Saturday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to midnight EDT tonight for LSZ321. && $$ SHORT TERM...DJC LONG TERM...SJC AVIATION...DJC