785
FXUS63 KAPX 141001
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
601 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Summer-like warmth and rain-free weather persists through next
  week with record-breaking warm temperatures possible this
  weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 209 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Pattern Synopsis:

Amplified ridging will continue to fold over the Great Lakes and
eastern Canada through the first half of this weekend. Further
upstream, troughing will lift from south-central Canada over Hudson
Bay. The remnants of Francine will also become increasingly strung
out across the southeast CONUS as surface high pressure dominates
New England and the Great Lakes.

Forecast Details:

Summer-like warmth and rain-free weather continues -- Quiet weather
will remain in place across northern Michigan with aforementioned
high pressure in place. Any patchy fog/mist lingering this morning
will quickly dissipate after sunrise as diurnal mixing ensues.
Current temperatures in the 50s look to warm to similar temps as
seen yesterday afternoon with highs mainly in the low to mid 80s for
most of the area. Once again, localized readings in the upper 80s
will be possible -- mainly at TVC and portions of northwest lower
with southeast winds downsloping off of higher terrain. With
relatively light winds between 5-10 mph in place, lake breeze
formation may push inland from most shorelines later this afternoon.
As has been the case the last several days, wildfire smoke will
linger overhead today into tonight and result in more pronounced
reds/oranges during sunrise and sunset. Otherwise, temperatures look
to cool back down into the 50s tonight with the potential for patchy
fog across interior low-lying areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 209 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Warm and dry through next week -- As one shortwave continues to lift
and flatten over Hudson Bay on Sunday, additional longwave troughing
looks to dig across the Pacific coast. This will support expansive
ridging remaining in place across most of the CONUS east of the
Rockies through next week. With said ridging building surface high
pressure across New England and the Great Lakes with little
substantial airmass change, recent summer-like warmth and rain-free
weather is expected to persist through most of next week as well.
Highs appear to stay in the upper 70s to mid 80s heading all
the way into next weekend. Localized areas of upper 80s may
rival record high temperatures on Sunday. Overnight lows in the
50s are expected for most areas through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 601 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Lingering FG/BR across parts of northern Michigan, including at APN
and TVC, is expected to lift quickly after sunrise with daytime
mixing. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected across the area into
tonight. Mainly light south-southeast winds of 5-10 kts will be in
place today with gusts around 15 kts at times through the afternoon.
Lake breeze formation may push inland from the lakeshores later
today. Weak/calm winds and clear skies will promote patchy FG/BR
development again tonight.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...DJC
AVIATION...DJC