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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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915 FXUS61 KBGM 271822 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 222 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Quiet conditions return to the region through the end of the work week, though a passing shower will be possible across the Mohawk Valley region this morning. The next system moves in this weekend, with periods of rain and thunderstorms in the forecast Saturday into Saturday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... 1230 PM Update... Showers are lasting a bit longer than originally forecasted. Using hi-res guidance and manual edits, slight chance PoPs were added for the next couple of hours. Skies are finally clearing behind the passing showers. Areas under the cloudy skies and rain showers are cooler than forecasted. Because of this, lows were lowered in a few locations, mainly across CNY. The other change was added additional fog to the forecast for the overnight hours. 925 AM Update... Some minor changes were made for this update but overall the forecast is doing well. 640 AM Update No significant changes. Touched up cloud cover based on the latest visible satellite imagery and 09z HRRR. A few rain showers will be possible along and north of I-90 now through mid to late morning; just trace or a few hundreths of rainfall expected here; dry elsewhere. Temperatures are starting off between 55 to 65 out there early this morning. There is some patchy fog around as expected. Generally, we are still expecting the stratus cloud layer to scatter out, giving way to sunshine by midday, with mostly sunny skies prevailing this afternoon. 215 AM Update Much quieter, cooler and less humid weather expected for the near term period. Clouds linger through much of the morning hours today before scattering out midday or early afternoon. The afternoon looks to feature plenty of sunshine and drier air mixes down into the boundary layer. Cooler temperatures, with highs in the upper 60s to mid-70 across Central NY with low 70s to low 80s in NE PA. NW winds will be a little breezy later today, between 8-15 mph with gusts up around 20-25 mph expected. Winds quickly diminish toward sunset and high pressure approaches. Cool and mostly clear with light winds tonight as a 1020mb surface high builds overhead. Overnight lows dip down into the 40s and low 50s areawide. This is 5 to 10 degrees below average for late June, and will be quite refreshing. Sprawling surface high pressure remains in place Friday morning, only slowly translating east into New England by the afternoon hours. After some patchy early morning valley fog, skies will be sunny to mostly sunny through the day. With full sunshine, went 1-2 degrees above the NBM temperature guidance and also lowered surface dew points and RH to account for the dry air mass centered over the region. Forecast highs are in the mid-70s to lower 80s over the area Friday afternoon, this is very close to average. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... 215 PM Update... There are no significant changes with the 12Z model guidance for this period. SPC and WPC both have the region in a marginal risks for severe thunderstorms and flash flooding. The more likely potential hazard will be localized flash flooding. As far as severe thunderstorms...there is a strong low level jet the pushes in Saturday afternoon, but forecast soundings are showing very little if any instability during the day Saturday. At this time, the thinking is for possibly some embedded thunder among heavy rain showers, but severe threat looks quite low. 315 AM Update... Rain showers and thunderstorms move in from the west early Saturday morning as deep SW return flow advects moisture into the region. Models continue to show PWAT values ranging 2-3 standard deviations above normal for this time of year with values surpassing 2 inches. This along with a deep warm cloud layer of 12-13K feet suggests conditions are favorable for heavy rainfall that could lead to instances of localized flash flooding. The convective potential at this time continues to be unfavorable as the early arrival of rainfall should limit instability. Rain showers are expected to continue into Saturday night with a relatively warm temperatures as lows will range in the mid 60s to low 70s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 220 PM Update... Cold front will exit the region Sunday morning, but with upper trough pushing overhead, some diurnal showers (possibly lake enhanced) will be possible during the afternoon. Overnight temperatures behind the front will be cooler with lows ranging in the low to upper 50s. Surface high pressure moves in overhead on Monday, bringing dry and warm conditions through the first half of the week. The pattern becomes zonal mid week with several perturbations pushing through the flow that will bring our next rain chances Wednesday and through the end of the week. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions are expected through this entire TAF period. West- northwest winds will remain through the afternoon hours with speeds around 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to 20-25 kts. These winds will diminish into the late evening hours below 10 kts before becoming light and variable overnight. Winds will remain calm through at least early Friday afternoon. Fog may be possible at most terminals, exception being AVP and SYR, in the early morning hours on Friday. However, confidence is low because model guidance is suggesting very little fog, but forecast soundings show a possibility for fog or low stratus. For now, this was handled by tempo groups. Outlook... Friday Night...Mainly VFR; low chance for showers at CNY terminals. Saturday through Sunday...Restrictions from showers and thunderstorms possible, mainly Saturday and into Saturday night. Monday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJM NEAR TERM...BTL/MJM SHORT TERM...ES/MPK LONG TERM...ES/MPK AVIATION...BTL