Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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049
FXUS64 KBMX 010528
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1228 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 833 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2024

No additional changes are planned at this time.

/61/

Previous short-term discussion:
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 1150 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2024

A boundary will move south through the area this afternoon and
evening, with showers and thunderstorms expected to develop ahead
the boundary. Instabilities will be between around 3000 J/kg with
shear around 30-40 kts. PW values will be max for this time of
year, around 2 inches. Would expect a few thunderstorms could be
strong with gusty winds and high rainfall rates. Activity will be
scattered through the afternoon, becoming more isolated this
evening as the boundary moves south and drier air advects into the
state. High temperatures are expected to be in the 90s, and with
so much low level moisture, heat indices will be between 105 to
110. Will keep the Heat Advisory going through the afternoon and
early evening.

Tonight, dry air will advect into the state with clearing expected
from north to south through the night. High pressure develops over
the MS River Valley and northerly flow will prevail tonight and
Monday. Low temperatures are expected to be in the upper 60s and
lower 70s.

Monday, the boundary is expected to slow down and stall somewhere
around the southeastern counties, in an area of I85 and
southeastward. Areas south of the boundary could see additional
showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon Monday, though
areas north should remain dry. PW values will remain close to max
in the areas south of the boundary, with instabilities around
1000-2500 J/kg. North of the boundary, PW values will be down to
the 50th percentile. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s
to lower 90s, and thanks the drier air, the heat indices will be
in the upper 80s in the north, to the mid 90s mid state, to
triple digits in the south, closer to that boundary. Will assess
if an additional Heat Advisory is needed for Monday afternoon in
the southern counties.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2024

The extended model suite has the large scale pattern exhibiting
little change from the previous forecast. At the start of the
period, the jet stream was meandering on both sides of the
US/Canadian Border while a strong upper level ridge was centered
just to our immediate west. This ridge hangs over Central Alabama
through at least Thursday. Successive systems dive into the trough
in the Northern Plains eventually carving out a deeper trough. This
trough ends up nudging the ridge eastward by next weekend.

Closer to the surface, model guidance has exhibited little change.
Therefore, will maintain the previous forecast discussion reasoning
for pops and Heat Indices through the week. If you haven`t
noticed, summer has arrived.

Farther south, the tropics do remain active. But at this juncture,
the NHC does not advertise any activity near the Central Gulf Coast.

75

Previous long-term discussion:
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 321 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2024

Key message:

- Heat and humidity will build through the week with heat indices
  at or above 105 degrees across much of Central Alabama by the
  time the holiday weekend arrives.

A strong subtropical ridge will meander across the Southeast
through the rest of the week, resulting in continued mainly above
normal temperatures and keeping diurnal convection from becoming
too widespread. At the surface, a 1025mb high moving eastward into
the Mid-Atlantic will cause a "cool" air damming wedge to build
down the East Coast. Lingering higher dew points will push
westward from Georgia in advance of the wedge front putting an end
to the temporary humidity reprieve. With low-level southeasterly
flow and weak isentropic lift a couple showers or a storms will be
possible in our southeast counties Monday night. The wedge arrives
on Tuesday with noticeable easterly winds. It will keep highs in
portions of East Alabama in the 80s, while West Alabama remains
hot with heat indices just under 105. Isolated to widely scattered
showers and storms will be possible with sufficient low-level
moisture, but very dry air aloft should limit coverage and think
NBM PoPs are too high. The wedge weakens by Wednesday, and expect
gradually warming temperatures and heat indices through the rest
of the week with coverage of areas with 105+ degree heat indices
increasing through the week. Expect just isolated to widely
scattered showers and storms Wednesday and Thursday afternoons.
Friday into Saturday a weakness in the ridge will eventually
develop due to a trough in the westerlies, potentially resulting
in an increasing coverage of convection.

32/Davis

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2024

Expect VFR at most sites for the next 24 hours. Winds will be out
the north, less than 3 kts overnight and then increase to 7 to 9
kts by 15z. Winds relaxe again after 00z. May see some low clouds
build toward the area but remain out of our area through 6z.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A drier air mass temporarily moves in on Monday with RH values in
the 30 to 40 percent range across the northern half of Central
Alabama, and 40 to 50 percent range across the south. Minimum RH
values increase to above 45 percent areawide for Tuesday. Winds
generally remain light Sunday, and become northerly Monday at 5 to
8 mph, southeasterly 5 to 10 mph Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     93  68  92  69 /   0   0  10  10
Anniston    93  71  89  71 /   0  10  20  10
Birmingham  94  72  92  74 /   0   0  10  10
Tuscaloosa  93  70  95  74 /   0   0  10  10
Calera      95  72  93  74 /   0   0  20  10
Auburn      95  74  86  72 /  20  20  40  10
Montgomery  96  74  90  73 /  10  10  50  10
Troy        97  73  88  71 /  20  20  60  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bullock-Dallas-
Elmore-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Montgomery-Pike-Russell-Tallapoosa.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM.../61/
LONG TERM....75
AVIATION...16