Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
180 FXUS64 KCRP 241719 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1219 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 325 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Key Messages: - Minor to moderate risk of heat related impacts. - Minor coastal flooding and a high risk of rip currents continues through Monday. An area of high pressure over west TX this morning will expand over the region and will be influenced under high pressure and subsidence for the foreseeable future. Although a slight weakness could still provide enough lift for some showers today. The weather pattern will include increasing heat indices, partly cloudy skies, increased low- level moisture accompanied by isolated to scattered showers/storms, mainly this afternoon but a few showers are possible this morning. Coastal flooding and a high risk of rip currents is still a concern as sea swells slowly recede. Today: Expect drier conditions aloft to promote clearer skies and a decrease in PWAT`s which are progged to drop during the early part of this week to around 2.0 inches which is still above the 75th percentile. There`s a slight chance (20-35%) for some showers this morning and afternoon, any activity should subside this evening. Highs today will be in the low to mid 90s with heat indices between 105-109 degrees. Lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 70s area- wide with around 80 degrees on the island. Tomorrow: Partly cloudy and dry. Afternoon highs will range in the low to upper 90s across the region with heat indices climbing into 105-109 range with some locales in the southern Coastal Bend/northern Brush Country possibly exceeding 110 degrees briefly. Coastal Conditions: Swell heights and periods are still elevated at around 4 ft and 8 seconds respectively. The latest run of the P-ETSS has tides running around or slightly higher than 2.0 ft MSL early this week. A Coastal Flood Advisory and a High Rip Current Risk are both continue to be in effect through this evening. Will continue to monitor seas and reassess these hazards. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 325 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Key Messages: - Dangerous heat returns with a moderate risk for heat-related impacts - Rain chances return this week The upper-level ridge aloft is expected to weaken mid-week before relocating towards the southern CONUS allowing for a short wave to move through the region resulting in low (15-25%) chances for showers and thunderstorms. As the ridge relocates to the southern CONUS and elongates west to east late this week, embedded shortwaves in the southern periphery of the ridge will traverse across the region leading to low (15-25%) chances late this week. Rain chances will increase a bit more to 25-40% late this weekend into next week as some models are showing an mid-level inverted trough sweeping through the area. Despite being under control the mid to upper-level ridge for most of the week, the best subsidence will be found north of the region which will help us be a bit cooler, and in turn, keep our heat index values at reasonable levels. Current probabilities of exceeding heat indices of 109 degrees (Heat Advisory conditions) are 25-40% Wednesday through the weekend from the Coastal Bend to the Brush Country and 10-20% to exceed 114 degrees (Excessive Heat Warning conditions)for the aforementioned area. Despite heat index values being at reasonable levels for this time of the year, the entire region will still have a moderate risk of heat-related impacts Tuesday through the end of the week due to poor overnight recoveries with lows in the 80s for most of the region. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Generally VFR conditions are expected through most of the TAF period. Brief periods of MVFR conditions due to isolated showers this afternoon and tonight due to patchy fog. The patchy fog will generally be from ALI to VCT. Light east to southeast winds will persist. && .MARINE... Issued at 325 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Weak to moderate onshore flow is expected for much of the week before increasing to moderate to strong levels (15-20 knots) Friday. Rain chances will be low throughout the week with seas subsiding to 2-3 feet Wednesday before increasing back to 3-4 feet Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 92 79 92 79 / 20 0 10 0 Victoria 91 77 92 77 / 30 0 20 0 Laredo 94 78 97 78 / 20 10 0 0 Alice 94 76 95 76 / 30 0 10 0 Rockport 92 82 92 82 / 20 10 10 0 Cotulla 98 79 99 79 / 10 0 0 0 Kingsville 92 77 93 78 / 30 0 10 0 Navy Corpus 90 82 90 82 / 20 10 10 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ245- 342>347-442-443-447. High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ345-442- 443-447. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...BF LONG TERM....JCP AVIATION...TE/81