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Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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154 ACUS01 KWNS 290102 SWODY1 SPC AC 290100 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS TO LOWER MO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and large hail along with a couple of tornadoes may occur into tonight across parts of the central Great Plains to the Lower Missouri Valley. ...01Z Update... Primary severe thunderstorm development has occurred near the I-70 corridor in northeast KS where slow-moving supercells have produced measured severe wind gusts to 75 mph and hail up to golf balls thus far. Very rich mean mixing ratios approaching 20 g/kg as sampled by the 00Z Topeka sounding in conjunction with around 45 kt effective bulk shear will favor supercell structures and organized clustering through the rest of the evening. Please see MCD 1465 for further discussion of the expected hazards. Additional storms should intensify north-northeastward along the surface front into southwest/west-central IA with a mixed severe threat spreading east in parts of IA/MO. High-based storms over the central High Plains should intensify as they impinge on richer buoyancy downstream along the KS/NE border, and will likely be maintained into the overnight period along the central Great Plains baroclinic zone. Isolated severe storms will remain possible, mainly through the rest of the evening, across parts of the Upper Midwest. This thunderstorm activity will be aided by a shortwave trough moving east from ND towards western Lake Superior. Despite ample effective bulk shear, weak MLCAPE and stronger forcing for ascent occurring behind the surface cold front, should limit the overall severe risk. ..Grams.. 06/29/2024 $$