Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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527 ACUS01 KWNS 240058 SWODY1 SPC AC 240056 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...THE MID ATLANTIC AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Damaging winds and a brief tornado remain possible across parts of the Northeast and New England this evening. Additional isolated severe storms are possible across the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic region, as well as the northern High Plains. ...01z Update... Ongoing convection over New England has decreased in coverage and intensity over the last couple of hours. While some buoyancy remains over southern New England, the loss of diurnal heating amid poor mid-lapse rates, will favor a continued downtrend in convective intensity this evening. Still, a few damaging gusts will remain possible, with isolated ongoing storms given relatively robust shear profiles. Farther south over the Mid Atlantic, several bands of storms have developed ahead of the slow-moving cold front over western/central PA and WV. Deep-layer shear remains favorable for organized multi-cells and or brief supercell structures. However, the gradual onset of nocturnal stabilization and the loss of forcing from the departing mid-level wave to the north suggests additional storm development/upscale growth is unlikely this evening. The potential for damaging gusts will persist for a few more hours as storms encounter diminishing residual buoyancy. While the severe threat should generally decrease over the broader Mid Atlantic and upper OH Valley this evening, somewhat greater storm coverage and perhaps a locally greater risk may persist over parts of southern/central PA into northwestern MD. Will maintain the Slight risk (level 2/5) across this region with a risk for damaging gusts. ...Northern Plains... No changes were made to the current outlook area over portions of MT and ND. Isolated supercells over southern SK may move south into northern MT and western ND this evening and overnight with additional storm development possible stateside. Despite somewhat limited low-level moisture (00z GGW RAOB), supercell wind profiles may support a risk for damaging gusts and hail into this evening. ..Lyons.. 06/24/2024 $$