843
FXUS63 KFGF 221127
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
627 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is potential for localized frost in portions of west-
  central Minnesota Sunday night into Monday morning.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 627 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Some fog or low level clouds has developed north of Bemidji.
Otherwise nothing else is really going on this morning. Winds
are light and under 10mph across the forecast area. Winds are
expected to remain light throughout the rest of the day.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 425 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

...Synopsis...

A cooler continental airmass migrates near the
Canadian Border filtering in cooler dry air as the Northern Plains
sits in northwest flow. We transition to a more westerly flow
increasing the amount of dry over the Northern Plains. A shortwave
will bring us some breezy conditions but the dry air at the lower
levels will likely continue our dry pattern. Following the shortwave
a ridge pattern sets up and temperatures look to rise slightly above
normal.

Sunday Night: A dry airmass will filter in from Northern Canada and
move near the Northern Plains. While some of the cooler dry air will
filter over the Northern Plains, 850mb temperatures look to remain
near 9 degrees celsius at the coldest over the Northern Plains. 925
temperatures also look to be around 10 degrees at the coldest as
well. Surface Dewpoints look to drop into the low 40`s/upper 30`s
for the majority of the forecast area. 00Z run of the HREF does
depict a 30-40% probability of reaching 36 degrees by 5am Monday
morning South of I-94. With cloud cover moving in from the Northwest
this would be the most likely area to have temperatures develop
frost if it stays cool enough to due so. To add to the uncertainty
most of the models dont have us reaching the 36 degree threshold
most likely due to the warmer 850/925 temps and encroaching cloud
cover. So I did not go with a Frost advisory for tonight as
conditions look to remain too warm for frost production.


Monday and Tuesday:

Monday, we will stay dry with westerly flow aloft filtering dry air.
Monday evening into Tuesday, a weak shortwave migrates through the
region. Some of the deterministic models show precipitation moving
into over area. However, Model soundings show a dry layer extending
up to 700mb. With this much dry air the most likely scenario will be
some cloudy skies and windy conditions developing but any
precipitation may evaporate long before it hits the ground.

Wednesday through Friday: Riding pattern sets in to bring increasing
temperatures following Tuesday`s shortwave. The ridge will likely
advect some moisture into atmosphere to raise the humidity into the
40`s and 50`s but doesnt look like any chances of rain for the rest
of the week with that area of high pressure sitting over us.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 627 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Some potential fog or low level clouds have developed north of
KBJI that could spread south. Otherwise, some cirrus clouds may
move through the area from Manitoba at 12,000 to 14,000ft. Winds
are expected to remain light at 5 knots with an occasional gust
up to 7 knots.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MM
DISCUSSION...MM
AVIATION...MM