Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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635 FXUS63 KFGF 062340 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 640 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Gusty winds to 50 mph will continue this afternoon. The probability for severe winds is low (10% chance of >50 knots) - Frequent precipitation chances arise through next week, but the probability for severe weather is low through Sunday. Predictability is low after that for severe. && .UPDATE... Issued at 640 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Winds are starting to slowly come down, although still getting frequent gusts to 40 mph in the advisory area. Should continue to see the pressure gradient relax and mixing decrease as the evening progresses. The blowing dust that is being carried into portions of southeastern ND into the southern RRV this afternoon will start to settle down also. Decreasing clouds and fairly quiet tonight after sunset. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 121 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 ...Synopsis... Surface analysis indicates a broad surface inverted ridge across the intermountain west with a large surface low over eastern Ontario. This has created a very tight pressure gradient over the northern plains and continues to fuel our ongoing wind issues. The upper flow pattern is high confidence through Sunday and favors an upper closed low that will propagate southward into broad upper ridging across the CONUS. Confidence is low in the evolution of this closed upper low and how long it lingers across the area, so predictability after Sunday is low. Still, this low should induce frequent chances at showers and thunderstorms, but the probability for organized severe thunderstorms is low due to instability isolated to the central plains and south. ...GUSTY WINDS... Gusty winds this afternoon will continue through the remainder of the day before we see improvements this evening. Observations thus far have indicated gusty winds approaching 50-55 mph. At this point, this appears to be the expected ceiling of today because winds are primarily pressure gradient induced and this pressure gradient is not expected to intensify much further. Still, there is a low chance (10%) for wind gusts exceeding 58 mph. At this time, given the low confidence in severe winds arising, the wind advisory will continue to be held. As the tight pressure gradient pushes eastward, wind speeds will diminish. ...PRECIPITATION/SEVERE CHANCES... Frequent chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue through Sunday, but significant impacts are unlikely to develop. The upper flow pattern keeps the strongest PW and CAPE values well to our south, so the probability for organized severe convection is low. Additionally, thunderstorm chances will also be low as a result. Towards next week, with the upper flow pattern diverging significantly on ensemble guidance, predictability for severe convection is low. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 640 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 VFR conditions throughout the forecast area with cloud cover in the 5000-9000 ft range. Should see a decrease in those mid clouds overnight before more come in for tomorrow. Winds that are gusting from the northwest above 30 kts at many airports will come down slowly in the next few hours, turning more west to southwesterly overnight. Winds will become a bit more gusty from the northwest again during daytime hours tomorrow, but not as strong as today and should stay mostly below 25 kts. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for NDZ006>008- 014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054. MN...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MNZ001>004-007- 029-030-040. && $$ UPDATE...JR DISCUSSION...Perroux AVIATION...JR