278
FXUS63 KGID 302046
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
346 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for Monday for north central
  Kansas and Gosper, Furnas, and Harlan Counties in south
  central Nebraska.

- There is a slight risk (level 2 out of 5) for Monday afternoon
  and evening. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes
  will be possible.

- Heat index values of 100 to 105 degrees will be possible (with
  some uncertainty) for portions of north central Kansas on
  Tuesday.

- Strong to severe storms are possible (20% to 30% chance) on
  Tuesday generally along the cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Today and tonight...

An upper ridge is centered over the southern Plains. A shortwave is
moving along the north edge of this ridge over Kansas and southern
Nebraska. This feature has increased upper lift which has resulted
in some areas of rain. The increased cloud cover and precipitation
has resulted in cooler temperatures. High temperatures today are
expected to be in the 60s and 70s. Precipitation will continue to
decrease this afternoon but is expected to increase in coverage
again later tonight as a shortwave and low-level jet move over the
area. Winds will be out of the southeast with lows in the 50s and
60s tonight.

Monday and Monday night...

An upper trough from the west will begin moving over the northern
and central Plains on Monday. The rain and storms from the morning
hours will be pushed northward and eastward by a warm front moving
into north central Kansas and south central Nebraska. This warm
front will result in high temperatures Monday climbing into the
upper 90s to triple digits across most of north central Kansas and
portions of southern Nebraska. Heat index values of 100 to around
107 degrees are expected across the above mentioned areas. A Heat
Advisory has been issued for Monday for north central Kansas and
Furnas, Gosper, and Harlan Counties in south central Nebraska.
Fairly high CAPE, wind shear, and mid-level lapse rates are expected
across much of the area late Monday afternoon into Monday evening.
These factors along with increased lift from the approaching upper
trough will lead to potential severe weather development late
Monday afternoon into Monday evening. South central and central
Nebraska remain in a slight risk on SPC`s Day 2 outlook. Large
hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes will be possible.
Storms are expected to develop across western portions of the
forecast area (west of the Tri-Cities) during the late
afternoon/early evening and move eastward. Storms will diminish
in coverage and intensity during the overnight hours with a cold
front beginning to move into the area. Low temperatures Monday
night are expected to range from the low 60s to upper 70s.

Tuesday through Wednesday night...

The cold front will continue moving through the area on Tuesday.
Showers and storms may develop along the leading edge of this front.
Some of these storms may become strong to severe. The high
temperatures on Tuesday across south central and central Nebraska
are expected to range from the low 80s to low 90s. There is more
uncertainty in regards to temperatures across north central Kansas
but generally expect highs to range from the lower to upper 90s.
Heat index values across mainly Mitchell, Osborne, and Jewell
Counties are expected to range from 100 to around 105 degrees. Low
temperatures Tuesday night will range from the upper 50s to upper
60s. Winds will return to the southeast on Wednesday with high
temperatures mostly in the 80s. Rain and storm chances (up to around
30%) will be present on Wednesday then increase (up to around 55%)
Wednesday night as a shortwave moves over the area. Low temperatures
Wednesday night will be in the 60s.

Thursday through Saturday night...

An upper trough will move over the northern and central Plains on
Thursday bringing a cold front through south central and central
Nebraska and north central Kansas. Rain and storm chances of up to
around 40% will continue across portions of the area on Thursday.
Low temperatures Thursday night will range from the mid 50s to mid
60s. A surface high will be across the area on Friday with high
temperatures in the upper 70s to upper 80s. Slight rain and storm
chances (up to 25%) will continue on Friday. Temperatures Friday
night will decrease slightly from the previous night with lows in
the mid 50s to lower 60s. Winds will become southerly on Saturday
with temperatures warming up into the low 80s to mid 90s. Low
temperatures Saturday night will mainly be in the lower to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Winds are expected to stay out of the southeast with some gusts
possible this afternoon and again from around 12z to 18z Monday.
Rain showers are expected early this afternoon and again around
07z tonight. There is a slight chance of an isolated
thunderstorm with these showers this afternoon and more likely
with the showers tonight. Low ceilings are expected tonight
beginning around 11z and continuing through at least 18z.
Marginal wind shear is possible tonight into tomorrow morning.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Monday for NEZ072-082-083.
KS...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Monday for KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Schuldt