285
FXUS63 KGLD 281947
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
147 PM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms may develop over portions of the area
  late Friday afternoon and evening. A few severe storms are
  possible. At this time, brief/localized instances of damaging
  wind appear to be the primary hazard.

- Cooler this weekend with some shower and storm chances.

- Heat returns Monday with low triple temperatures currently
  forecasted.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 221 AM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Shortwave, that was delayed that hurt earlier convection is finally
moving across the area with an area of showers and embedded storms
moving into western Yuma county currently. Some further south
development towards the I-70 corridor is possible through sunrise.

For today another challenging convective forecast is on tap as we
remain in relatively the same pattern as the previous two days. The
main difference with today is that a surface trough will sag into
the area from the north during the afternoon hours which will create
a better forcing mechanism for potential storm development. There is
however some concern whether or not storms will be able to maintain
themselves or if they can reach their full potential as dry air will
be present at the surface; there is also the lack of upper level
support which has been a somewhat mitigating factor these past few
days.

Current thinking is that storms will begin to initiate in
northeast Colorado/Nebraska panhandle along the trough with new
hit and miss cells developing the further south into SW
Nebraska/NW Kansas through the afternoon. Different from the
past few days will be that wind shear will be quite a bit
stronger around 40-45 knots and that we shouldn`t have to deal
with stratus hindering instability. Due to the concerns with the
dry air at the surface there is again questions if storms can
maintain themselves. As for hazards for the day am thinking that
damaging winds around 70 mph along with some localized
instances of 80+ mph are all on the table especially with
inverted v soundings. There is also the potential that these
winds can come with decaying storms in the form of severe
downbursts or even microbursts. There is also some hail threat
as well bit is a bit more conditional and should remained
confined to if a cell can mature and maintain itself. Overall
CAPE itself is rather meager around 1000-1500 j/kg of MUCAPE but
given the strong shear should a discrete long lived storm
maintain itself then the hail could remain aloft in the updraft
longer.

As of current data am thinking that the relative best potential to
see severe weather will be across east portions of the area roughly
along and east of a McCook to Oakley line. Nearly all guidance
suggests that moisture return will ramp up quickly after 00Z
which should be about the time that storms should be moving into
the area. This is also being favored by the RAP with having the
best 700-500mb moisture present. Severe threat elsewhere across
the area should be more isolated should it happen. Storms
should be out of the area by 06Z.

Temperatures for the day will be similar to what was seen
yesterday with highs in the 90s. Luckily though humidity will be
a bit lower keeping the muggy conditions at bay. Will then be
watching as a cold front moves south into the area overnight
which may bring some low stratus or even some transient fog
through the area into Saturday morning.

Saturday currently looks to be more tranquil as the area looks to be
post frontal which will bring high temperatures in the 80s for
highs. Keeping the good majority of the area dry for the day as mid
level ridging will be present across the region. The exceptions will
be western portions of eastern Colorado where a disturbance may clip
those areas. At this time not expecting any severe weather during
the day as the best instability looks to lie across
southern/southwestern Kansas.

Saturday night however will see the cold front retreat back to the
north as a warm front which does look to bring shower and storm
chances moving south to north up towards the I-70 corridor. Increase
in mid level moisture looks to be present as well so will need to
monitor for an overnight hail potential mainly along and south of
Highway 40.

Sunday at this time appears to be a tricky temperature
forecast. Guidance suggests that stratus and perhaps drizzle/fog
may persist through the majority of the day across eastern
portions of the area. In fact the NAM has Hill City and McCook
struggling to get to the mid 60s to for highs. I`m not going
that extreme at this time but current forecasted highs in the
low 80s seems reasonable. A developing trough across the Inter-
Mountain west will lead to a tight pressure gradient near the
KS/CO line bring breezy southerly winds. Moisture will remain
in place so no fire weather concerns given the breezy winds.
Monsoonal moisture looks to ride the redeveloping surface high
into the area which may bring the chance for some showers and
storms. Have capped pops at 30% due to concerns of the extent of
the surface high which would increase subsidence hurting our
rain chances. If the high is further south then perhaps the
chance of precipitation will increase.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 145 PM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Both the latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF continue to upper level
ridging at 500mb stretched across the southern portion of the
country, amplifying some by the end of next week. This will allow
for W/NW flow aloft giving way to SW flow aloft late in the period.
The passage of several shortwaves along the northern periphery of
the ridge will interact with a surface low and associated front that
will meander through the CWA and eventually settling south of the
CWA. Both sets of guidance are showing a bit differentset of areal
coverage for rw/trw, but the overall consensus will be the chance(20-
40%) for late afternoon precipitation, as the evening hours will
promote higher chances(40-60%) for storms.

As with the past several days, the above normal temps as fueled dry
conditions during the daytime hours, allowing for sunset/evening
convection chances. Can`t rule out some strong to severe cells to
impacts areas, along with some localized heavy rainfall with PW
values 1-1.5" early in the week, with a 1-1.2" range for the latter
portion.

For temps, highs on Monday will range in the upper 90s over
northeast Colorado into the low 100s for locales east of the
Colorado border. For next Tuesday onward, mainly 90s expected each
day, with areas along/west of Highway 27 seeing some mid and upper
80s mix in, especially for northeast Colorado.

With Monday having much of the region seeing at least 100 degrees,
some high heat indices are possible. With the area being dry for
most of the daytime hours, low RH will be present. Areas along/east
of Highway 83, especially Graham and Norton counties could have
enough moisture present to give some readings in the 100-103 range.
West of this, readings will be at/below forecasted highs. Conditions
will be monitored for a potential Heat Advisory issuance if
warranted.

Overnight lows will mainly range in the 60s for most of the periods,
but Monday night could have 70s present for areas along/east of
Highway 83.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1036 AM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024

For KGLD, VFR conditions through the forecast period, with some
VCTS possible from 00z-03z Saturday. Winds, northwest 10-15kts
becoming northeast by 00z. A period of a few hours back to the
northwest 5-10kts then from 13z onward northeast 15-25kts.

For KMCK, VFR conditions through the forecast period, with some
VCTS possible from 01z-04z Saturday. Winds, meandering from
northwest to the northeast 5-15kts. A period of light/variable
is expected from 04z-09z Saturday.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...JN