643
FXHW60 PHFO 011345
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
345 AM HST Mon Jul 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A high pressure ridge north of the Hawaiian Islands will build
today, increasing trade wind speeds into the moderate to breezy
range. These breezy trade winds will continue through much of the
week. Fairly stable conditions aloft will keep brief passing
showers over windward and mountain areas, mainly in the overnight
to early morning hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
An upper level low shown on satellite water vapor imagery is roughly
350 miles north of the island of Kauai will weaken as it lifts
farther northward over the next 24 hours. Infrared satellite
imagery east (upstream) of the island chain shows fairly stable
clouds riding in on the trade winds. These passing stable clouds
will not produce much rainfall over the islands in the short term.

Starting today the high pressure ridge north of the islands will
build into the Hawaii Region,producing more stable conditions
with less clouds, lower shower trends, and increasing trade wind
speeds into the moderate to breezy range through Friday. Expect
limited showers for most windward areas with lower shower activity
over the typically drier leeward regions. Trade wind thermal
inversion heights will range from around 5,000 to 6,500 feet in
most locations in a fairly stable weather pattern. Some exceptions
may include the eastern slopes of Maui and the Big Island where
periods of passing rain showers will likely continue.

&&

.AVIATION...
Moderate to locally breezy trades will continue through tonight.
Some brief MVFR cigs/vsbys will be possible in windward areas,
particularly over the Big Island early this morning. Otherwise,
VFR conditions are expected to prevail.

No AIRMETs are currently in effect.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure north of the state will bring fresh to strong
trade winds today and persist through most of the week. A Small
Craft Advisory has been issued for the waters and channels
around the Maui and The Big Island. Trades may weaken slightly on
Wednesday, before a slight uptick on Thursday and Friday.

No significant south swells are expected through this upcoming
week. However, a series of small south-southwest and southeast
swells will keep south facing shores from going flat.

Typical mostly flat summertime conditions will continue along
north facing shores through most of the week. East shore surf
will gradually trend up closer to seasonal levels late today
through the middle of this week as the trades strengthen over and
upstream of the islands. A fetch of strong northeast winds well
off the California coast should bring a small northeast (050 to
060 degree) swell by this weekend and into early next week. Some
of this swell should wrap into select north facing exposures as
well.

Water levels running roughly 0.5 ft higher than normal around the
Big Island combined with the new moon tides could cause minor
flooding issues between July 2nd and July 6th with peak water
levels expected on July 4th. During our last full moon, we
received reports of some areas of the coastline becoming
inundated with the high tide such as Coconut Island and Puhi Bay.
A Coastal Flood Statement will likely be needed for the Big Island
near the 4th of July. For the other islands, water levels are
running just a touch above normal and will likely not reach our
criteria of 1 foot above the Mean Higher High Water (MHHW).

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Wednesday for windier waters
around Maui and the Big Island.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bohlin
AVIATION...Jelsema
MARINE...JT