051
FXUS64 KHGX 011810
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
110 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Surface high pressure will remain overhead through the short-term
period and will allow the streak of hot and humid conditions to
persist. A Heat Advisory will continue to be in effect through this
evening as highs in the upper 90s combine with dew point values in
the upper 70s to near 80 and result in heat indices in the 105-100F
range for much of the area.

Showers and storms will be possible again this afternoon and Tuesday
afternoon courtesy of a weak boundary. Rainfall totals of less than
a tenth of an inch expected.

Overnight lows will not provide much relief from today`s unrelenting
heat. Temperatures will be in the upper 70s inland to the low 80s
along the coast. Continue to practice heat safety, and remember to
look before you lock!

Adams

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Mid-upper ridging will keep things about status quo into the late
work week with hot & muggy conditions prevailing. A select few
might see an isolated diurnally driven shra/tstm, but overall
chances remain fairly slim.

Friday into the weekend, the ridge loses some of its grip across the
area as it shifts eastward and a trof makes its way into the
Plains. Temperatures should still be slightly above normal and
uncomfortable as this occurs...just less miserable as we`re currently
experiencing. What it should do however, is provide a somewhat less
hostile profile aloft and allow for a touch more iso-sct precip
coverage. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

VFR conditions will generally prevail for the duration of the TAF
period. Winds should remain under 10 knots through the afternoon,
becoming light and variable overnight. Periods of cigs around
4000-7000ft are a possibility at times, along with the potential
for some scattered showers between around 21Z and 02Z today.
Rainfall chances will be even lower tomorrow with light south
winds developing by late morning.

Cady

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 350 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Look for a gradual decay in the 3-5ft longer period swell associated
with TS Chris well to our south as the day progresses. High
pressure in the vicinity will lead to a landbreeze-seabreeze
circulation during the early part of the week (offshore wind in
the morning & onshore wind in the afternoon/evenings). A more
predominate s/se flow should set up midweek onward. We`ll probably
see another longer period swell arrive at some point this weekend
in association with Hurricane Beryl that is forecast to move into
the Bay of Campeche late Friday.  47

&&

.TROPICAL...
Issued at 350 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

TS Chris is making landfall on Mexico`s Gulf Coast and is a non-issue
here. Hurricane Beryl should make its way across the Yucatan and
into the Bay of Campeche late Friday. The 00z ensembles are mostly
clustered well to our south beyond that - which is good. But as
with all long range forecasts, there are uncertainties involved.
What will Beryl look like after moving across land? What will the
shear profile look like? What is the ridging situation and
steering flow locally? Etc, etc. So really not a lot to be alarmed
about at the moment...but just keep an eye on things as the week
progresses. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  99  77 100  78 /  10   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  99  79  99  80 /  20  20  10   0
Galveston (GLS)  93  83  93  83 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-164-176>179-
     195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335-338-438-439.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....47
AVIATION...Cady
MARINE...47