421
FXUS63 KICT 211933
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
233 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight chance (20%) for showers through this evening.

- Increasing confidence for isolated showers and storms on
  Saturday, especially east of I-135.

- Hot on Monday and Tuesday, but chances for showers through the
  end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Water vapor imagery currently depicts an upper-level trough
gradually making its way eastward over the Great Basin as the
synoptic ridge continues to sit over the Ohio River Valley. Surface
analysis reveals a warm front extending from the High Plains to Lake
Michigan, which is providing lift for additional showers and
storms across the Northern Central Plains. SPC mesoanalysis once
again highlights anomalous PW values approaching 2" across
south central and eastern Kansas, which have led to a handful of
showers developing over the region this afternoon that are
making their way northward. These are expected to be short-lived
and diurnal in nature.

The upper-level disturbance making its way across the Northern
Central Plains will bring a cold front that will make its way across
central and eastern Kansas Saturday afternoon. This boundary will
provide sufficient lift for isolated showers and storms to develop
given rich moisture profiles and ~1500 J/kg of CAPE, but marginal
deep-layer shear around 20 kts should prevent widespread severe
storms from developing. Even so, the primary threats with any storms
tomorrow afternoon/evening will be 60 mph wind gusts and locally
heavy rainfall. Currently thinking development could extend as far
west as I-135 per the mid-range deterministic models and CAMs, but
coverage should remain primarily in east and northeast Kansas.

Heat will continue to be the primary focus heading into next week.
High temperatures on Monday and Tuesday are forecast at or above 100
degrees for much of central and southeast Kansas, with heat indices
approaching 105-110 degrees. Long-range models are in general
agreement of shortwave energy providing chances for showers and
storms Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, then later on in the
week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Similar to
yesterday, very isolated, short-lived, showers and storms are
expected this afternoon. Impacts to the terminals are not
expected. Southerly wind gusts near 25-30 kts are expected
through sunset. Marginal LLWS conditions are possible at RSL,
GBD, and SLN late tonight but surface gusts may persist,
limiting LLWS impacts.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...BRF