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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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994 FXUS61 KILN 291856 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 256 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and a chance of thunderstorms will continue into tonight as a cold front moves through the Ohio Valley. High pressure and a cooler, drier airmass will build into the region behind the front for Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms are continuing across the area this afternoon. This initial pcpn is associated with some mid level energy moving through the upper Ohio Valley and a weak pre frontal trough. Morning cloud cover and poor mid level lapse rates have so far kept most of the storms in check across our area. Our far southeast is a little more unstable as they have seen a bit more sunshine today so think that that area will have the best chance for any stronger storms as we progress through late afternoon. Some secondary mid level energy will overspread the region late this afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front that will move southeast into our area later tonight. As a result, will keep some lingering chances for showers and storms into tonight until the front moves through. Some locally heavy downpours will remain possible as PWs will remain high ahead of the front. Lows tonight will range from the mid 60s northwest to the low 70s southeast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A chance for showers and thunderstorms will linger into Sunday morning across our far southeast before the front clears the area. CAA behind the front will lead to cooler temperatures on Sunday with highs ranging from the mid 70s northwest to the lower 80s in the southeast. We should also see some cu develop in the CAA for partly cloudy skies on Sunday. These cu should dissipate heading into Sunday evening with mostly clear skies expected Sunday night. Lows Sunday night will be in the low to mid 50s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Surface high pressure passes overhead on Monday and Monday night. Fair weather skies and below average temperatures can be expected along with light northeasterly winds. The surface high shifts east on Tuesday which will allow southerly flow to redevelop over the Ohio Valley. Warm, moist air returns along with height rises on the southwesterly winds. By Wednesday, increasing afternoon rain chances accompany the hot, humid air over the region. Diurnal shower/storm chances persist through most of the week since the synoptic pattern appears slow to modify. Toward the Friday timeframe, a weak cold front may move through the Ohio Valley which may initially increase shower/storm chances before leading to slight moderation in temperatures by the weekend. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Occasional showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue to affect the region this afternoon into early evening as mid level energy moves through the Ohio Valley. This is ahead of a cold front that will drop southeast across the area later tonight. This could lead to a few lingering showers and thunderstorms persisting into tonight until the front moves through. Some MVFR cigs will also likely develop with the front later tonight and continue into Sunday morning before improving back to VFR later Sunday morning and into the afternoon. Southwest winds ahead of the front will become northwest later tonight with the frontal passage. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Wednesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...Campbell AVIATION...JGL