606
FXUS61 KILN 282354
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
754 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Seasonably warm and humid air builds back in through the start
of the weekend. Isolated showers return tonight, with additional
rounds of showers and thunderstorms possible through Saturday
into early Saturday night. Cold front moves through Saturday
night and leaves a relatively cooler and drier air mass for the
end of the weekend and start of the next work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
High pressure will gradually retreat eastward today. Winds
shifted towards the south-southeast, ushering in a slightly
warmer air mass today. Clouds will continue to spill in from the
west ahead of the next system, but conditions will remain dry
through the daylight hours.

Highs will climb into the middle 80s to lower 90s. With
dewpoints creeping slightly higher today into the upper 60s to
near 70, locations along/south of the OH River will observe heat
indices near the middle to upper 90s.

A warm frontal boundary will push northward through the Ohio
Valley tonight. Low level moisture continues to build in, with
a mid level cloud deck overspreading the region. This will limit
cooling potential tonight, keeping lows in the 70s for our
entire CWA. A few isolated showers may spawn earlier in the
overnight period. Better chances for rain showers expected
across portions of west-central OH and perhaps southeast IN
early Saturday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
At this juncture, CAMs still remain all over the place on how to
handle PoPs for Saturday. There is growing indication that our
southern counties (closer towards the OH River) struggle to get
any rainfall through Saturday morning. Better chances will
certainly be present for locations along/north of I-70, but
there are some CAMs that still struggle to develop much precip
through Saturday morning in these areas. However, have
reasonable confidence to put high chance or likely PoPs given
that it will be more favorable to at least get some measurable
precip.

Pre frontal showers/storms still expected in some capacity
through Saturday afternoon. Timing/placement will be key for a
number of reasons, including the severe risk potential, along
with determining how high heat indicies will climb for our
southern counties near the OH River. A longer period without
rainfall in our south could lead to some locations near 100
degree heat indicies given that dewpoints are expected to climb
into the lower to middle 70s. While no official heat headlines
are out as of now, have continued with a mention in the HWO.
Just be mindful that a number of locations south of I-70 will
have reasonable chances to reach HI values from the middle 90s
to near 100 given the very humid air mass.

Severe potential will be highest in the afternoon/evening when
instability is maximized, but still not overly confident on this
potential for our counties. CAPE values still may exceed 2000
J/kg, but poor mid level lapse rates will hinder large hail
potential. While straight-line winds would be the primary
threat, a non-zero threat still exists for an isolated tornado.
Shear parameters not very favorable for rotating storms in our
CWA, but rather it looks better for locations ENE of us. The
machine learning products tend to agree with this as well.
Flooding concerns remain unlikely for us as well given the
antecedent dry soils and limited indication of multiple rounds
storms producing heavy rainfall for any particular location.
However, it should be noted that PWATs are 150-175% of normal,
so any thunderstorm will have the potential for producing very
efficient rainfall.

Cold front begins to move through our CWA Saturday night, but by
then, forcing appears more limited and thus coverage in precip
will be more limited too.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure builds in from the northwest on Sunday and Monday
along with upper level troughing. Cool, dry air arrives with the
high keeping temperatures below average for late June on northerly
winds. Expect fair weather skies to start the week.

The heat and humidity return on Tuesday when upper level troughing
and surface high pressure shift east of the Ohio Valley. Growing
chances for showers and thunderstorms start to accompany the summer-
like conditions by midweek when a weak front starts approaching from
the northwest. Afternoon shower and thunder chances could persist
through the end of the week since the front appears very slow to
progress south.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Cloud cover will increase this evening as a system approaches.
There will be some scattered shower activity that moves into the
region overnight. There will be the potential for some
thunderstorms near the northern TAF sites overnight as well.

This activity will then move out of the area in the morning and
there will be a brief lull or decrease in the precipitation
across the TAF sites. Winds will pick up and there will be the
potential for some wind gusts.

Additional showers and thunderstorms will develop during the
afternoon hours on Saturday. There is some uncertainty on the
coverage of activity during this time. Due to this, limited
precipitation mention to VCTS. There will then be another break
in the precipitation before a final round moves through after
the TAF period later Saturday night.

Did not add any TSRA or vsby restrictions in with thunderstorm
potential at this time, however will continue to monitor to pin
point best timing as details resolve with time.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible into Saturday night and then
again on Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Clark
NEAR TERM...Clark
SHORT TERM...Clark
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...