980
FXUS64 KLCH 242303
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
603 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Mid-afternoon surface analysis shows high pressure situated off
the MS/AL coast, while aloft weak ridging extends from the desert
SW to the NW Gulf Coast. Only a few very isolated showers are
noted on area radar this afternoon, amid otherwise mostly sunny
skies. Observations across the CWA show temps currently ranging
from the low to mid 90s, while heat indices are in the 100-108
range at this time. The remainder of this afternoon into this even
will consist of a continuation of this weather, with a few more
isolated showers potentially popping up over the next couple of
hours before activity dies with sunset. Tonight, expect lows to
fall into the mid to upper 70s.

Tomorrow will bring a nearly identical set up and a near repeat of
today`s weather, with the main concern being the continued hot and
humid conditions. Another Heat Advisory has been issued from 11AM
through 7PM tomorrow for interior SE TX, central LA, and south-
central LA, with heat indices in the 108-110 range expected. The
remainder of the region is expected to remain below advisory
criteria but only slightly, with heat index values expected to
peak around 105-107 tomorrow afternoon. Temperature wise, highs
will again top out in the mid 90s, with some of our extreme
northern areas potentially reaching the upper 90s. In addition,
relatively isolated convection is again expected, providing little
reprieve from the heat.

As we move into the mid-week, the upper ridge is expected to
retreat westward as a mid level trough takes shape over the
eastern CONUS. This will open the door for better rain chances on
Wednesday with POPs around 25-50% on tap through the afternoon
hours. Temps are expected to top out in the low to mid 90s Wed
afternoon, while heat indices look like they may remain just
below advisory criteria thanks to the addition of better rain
chances.

17

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Sunday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

The long term begins Thursday with sfc high pressure centered
over the ern Gulf maintaining a srly low-level flow while a weak
frontal boundary is noted slipping swd to near the I-20 corridor by
day`s end. Aloft, the area is progged to be squeezed between a trof
along the East Coast and ridging extending up the Plains from Texas
with a general weakness in place across the LA zones. With forecast
soundings indicating plenty of available moisture (mean RH values
range from 70 percent west to 90 percent sern 1/3...PWAT values
range from 2.1 to 2.4 inches), expect at least scattered mainly
diurnal convection, especially over Acadiana/Atchafalaya Basin.

For Friday, the ridge aloft is progged to begin building back
somewhat over the region, nudging the weakness ewd toward the FL
Panhandle. However, forecast soundings don`t indicate a great deal
of capping with the weak ridge. Meanwhile, the sfc boundary is
likely to slip back nwd, lessening whatever influence it may have.
All in all, small POPs remain in the forecast for now.

Saturday looks like a general repeat of Friday. Sunday could see a
bit more convective coverage as a disturbance is progged to swing
past the ridge and combine with the good moisture in place, while
another frontal boundary stalls to our north.

Temperatures through the period are forecast to run rather static
with overnight lows in the mid/upper 70s and daytime highs in the
mid 90s. Apparent temps approaching the 108F advisory criteria look
possible generally each afternoon.

25

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)

SHRA/TSRA north of LFT/ARA, with current trends, not expecting to
affect these terminals, or remaining terminals this evening and
overnight. South to southeast winds 8-10 kts expected to diminish
to 4-5 kts or less after 01z, and pick up again by 18z Tuesday.
Slightly higher chances of SHRA/TSRA over Acadiana Tuesday afternoon,
but still limited to 30-40%. Thus, placed only VCTS for LFT/ARA/AEX.
Further west at LCH/BPT, much lower chances expected, with no
mention of VCTS.

08/DML

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Light onshore flow will continue through the week across the
coastal waters. Waves will also be low, with a height between 1
and 3 feet, with the higher waves farther offshore.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  75  97  75  96 /   0  20  10  30
LCH  78  93  77  92 /   0  20   0  30
LFT  77  95  76  94 /  10  40  10  50
BPT  77  94  77  94 /   0  10   0  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ027>029-033-044-
     045-055-152>154-252>254.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ027>029-033-
     044-045-055-152>154-243-252>254.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ073-
     074-252>254.

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ180-259-260.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ180-201-259-
     260.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ615.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...08