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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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651 FXUS64 KLCH 271720 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1220 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday night) Issued at 214 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 A weak upper disturbance is moving across the area this morning while surface convergence is occurring along the coast from a left over outflow boundary as a result of Wednesday`s convection. More broadly across the Conus, a ridge is centered over the desert SW/Northern Mexico while an upper trough is over the eastern half of the country. The weak upper disturbance is rotating around the sw side of upper trough. Convection along the coast is being supported by the coastal convergence and upper weakness and is anticipated to continue through sunrise and into mid-late morning before weakening. In the mid lvls a drier airmass is located across interior SE TX, Cen LA, and northward. This may suppress convection somewhat today, however hi-res guidance still indicates enough low lvl moisture is in place to allow isolated to scattered showers and storms. Storm movement will be toward the coast much like Wednesday. Convection should quickly die off as sunset approaches as this drier air moves south across the entire area. The ridge over the SW states will begin to build back east Friday. The air mass is also expected to drier aloft. Convection is expected to be somewhat suppressed across SE TX and interior locations, however higher chances will be found across Acadiana where the ridge`s influence will still be lesser and moisture will be higher. The ridge will build east across the region this weekend increasing temperatures once again. Apparent temps may push back into heat adv criteria. Rain chances will be low both Saturday and Sunday, however isolated storms in the afternoon may be possible. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 214 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 The upper ridge will be centered over the mid-Mississippi Valley by early next week. A weak cold front is expected to drift in from the northeast causing an increase in convection once again Mon and Tue. No cooling is expected though. With the upper ridge in place across the South temperatures will continue to be above normal in the extended. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Light west to southwest winds and mainly VFR ceilings will prevail through the afternoon. A few isolated showers will be possible through the next few hours as well, mainly for the I-10 terminals. Some of this convection may become heavy at times and be capable of briefly reducing VIS if they move across the terminals. Shower activity should taper off with sunset with light winds and VFR ceilings then continuing through the end of the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 214 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 A light onshore flow is expected through the weekend. Showers and storms, most numerous in the overnight and early morning hours, are anticipated this morning and again Friday. Lesser amounts of convection is expected this weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 72 94 76 96 / 10 20 0 20 LCH 77 90 79 92 / 20 40 0 20 LFT 77 92 79 94 / 30 70 0 30 BPT 77 93 79 94 / 20 30 0 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...17