Area Forecast Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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895 FXUS64 KLUB 301934 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 234 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 - Dry weather and above average high and low temperatures will prevail today and tomorrow. Today and tomorrow the upper level pattern remains quasi zonal as high pressure remains parked over north Texas. Meanwhile at the surface lee side trough and high pressure building near the Great Lakes will result southerly winds becoming more southwesterly, but remaining light across the area. Outside of the wind shift, subsidence and lack of moisture will support another two mostly sunny days with solar insolation at its max. High temperatures will remain above average reaching the upper 90s to low 100s. Tonight continued light winds and mostly clear conditions will lead to lows falling into the upper 60s to mid 70s on the Caprock and mid to upper 70s off the Caprock. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Upper ridging will be centered near or just east of the ArkLaTex region by early Tuesday with guidance continuing to depict a gradual eastward movement of the ridge through the midweek period. Despite the center of the ridge being to our east, Tuesday still looks to be the hottest day of the next week with layer thicknesses remaining elevated and broad surface troughing over the TX Panhandle maintaining a downslope component to the surface flow. Highs Tuesday will consequently reach the upper 90s to low 100s with heat advisory criteria likely being met over the eastern Rolling Plains. Temperatures will then cool slightly (though still remain above normal) Wednesday and Thursday as mid/upper level heights gradually decrease. Regarding precip chances, the eastward shift of the upper ridge combined with gradually deepening cyclonic flow over the north-central CONUS will allow a plume of monsoonal moisture to pivot over eastern NM into the TX Panhandle during the mid to late week period. This will bring a return of storm chances each evening initially over the SW TX Panhandle on Tuesday with these low chances gradually expanding eastward over most of the South Plains and the rest of the TX Panhandle Wed/Thu. It still is uncertain just how widespread showers and storms become Tue-Thu given an overall lack of coherent forcing, but at least isolated activity looks reasonable given the moisture and continued robust diurnal heating. Confidence in storms midweek is highest over the SW TX Panhandle with considerably lower confidence further south and east. Northwesterly flow aloft still looks likely to set up late week into the weekend as large amplitude ridging builds off the CA coast. This setup and the approach of a cold front on Friday will bring much cooler temperatures and more widespread rain chances to the entire region Friday through at least the first half of the weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through this TAF period with breezy southerly winds. All convection just to the north of the region should not impact KCDS. Check density altitude. Confidence is high on all elements. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...28 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...28