499
FXUS64 KMAF 021103
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
603 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 141 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Change is slowly coming into the picture for the short-term
forecast. The persistent mid-level ridge across the southern CONUS
begins to weaken slightly over the southern Great Plains as the
center moves eastward slightly. Unfortunately, this slight shift of
the ridge increases temperatures a few degrees across the area. Most
locations can expected near 100 degrees for afternoon high
temperatures. While temperatures may be hotter, rain chances begin
to increase as more southwesterly mid-level flow and weakening large
scale subsidence overspread our region. Isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms are likely across the western higher elevations and
adjacent plains this afternoon and evening. Things slowly weaken and
dissipate overnight. The ever present nocturnal low-level jet keeps
temperatures warm, mainly in the 70s for morning low temperatures.
Wednesday will be nearly a carbon copy of this afternoon with
temperatures within a degree or two of today. The main difference
will be that rain chances expand ever so slightly further east into
western portions of the Permian Basin. Even more change arrives as
we move into the long-term period.

-Chehak

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 141 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

We begin the extended with the 4th of July and it will be a hot one.
Even though upper ridging will begin to break down, we will have one
more day where most of the region will see 100 degree temperatures.
We will need to monitor for another day of possible Heat Advisories
across the Big Bend and Davis Mountains. With the ridge weakening,
subsidence that will keep most of the area dry this week will be all
but gone by Thursday. With daytime heating, at least scattered
showers and storms will form across the higher terrain by afternoon.
Outflow could fire more storms further north across SE NM and the
Permian Basin later in the evening so if you have plans outside at
the pool or watching fireworks, you`ll want to keep checking the
forecast. A trough moving across the N. Plains will also send a cold
front south with storms likely firing along this boundary Thursday
night in the TX PH. Developing northwesterly flow aloft will likely
send these storms south. As an intense upper ridge builds in the
West, this flow regime will linger into the weekend with unsettled
conditions across much of the area. While it will not rain everyday
everywhere, storms will be possible at almost any point Friday into
next week. Another front could be a focus for more widespread storms
Sunday. It is still to early to know whether we will see any
flooding with much of region outside of the higher terrain not
having seen rain for at least 3 weeks.

After the hot period we have seen as of late, temperatures will
trend downward Friday into the weekend. We could even see below
normal temperatures if rain and clouds are widespread enough.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 601 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

VFR conditions remain for the area. Southeast winds have weakened
this morning but become elevated again through the afternoon and
evening. A stray thunderstorm can`t be ruled out at CNM and HOB
but confidence is too low for inclusion in TAF at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring              104  77 103  77 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                103  77 101  77 /  20  20  40  20
Dryden                  101  75 101  76 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton           104  75 103  75 /  10   0  20  10
Guadalupe Pass           94  73  93  73 /  20  30  50  30
Hobbs                   101  74 101  74 /  20  20  20  20
Marfa                    97  66  97  67 /  20  20  30  30
Midland Intl Airport    101  76 101  77 /   0   0  10  10
Odessa                  101  77 101  77 /   0   0  10  10
Wink                    106  78 105  79 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...91
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...91