Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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229 FXUS64 KMAF 012003 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 303 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Tuesday night) Issued at 301 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Lather. Rinse. Repeat. WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered just west of the ArklaTex this afternoon, resulting in a relatively "cool" afternoon across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Convection is trying to develop over the higher terrain, but CAMs suggest this is a futile effort, and only isolated activity is expected, if that. Tonight, a 40+kt LLJ is forecast to redevelop. Although skies will be mostly clear, the LLJ will keep mixing in play, retarding radiational cooling and keeping overnight minimums ~ 8-10 F above normal. Tuesday, while the ridge will shift slightly east, thicknesses here will nevertheless increase, adding 2-3 F onto today`s highs, once again yielding triple-digit highs most locations. A Heat Advisory of two may be needed, but forecast temperatures are right on the fence attm. For those who don`t like the warmer weather, Tuesday will be perhaps the warmest day this forecast, as the ridge shifts to the southeast CONUS after Tuesday, and a col develops over Texas. Southeasterly upslope flow will result in diurnally-driven convection over the higher terrain. As a result of the ridge shifting east, CAMs develop convection over the higher terrain and even out onto the plains a bit, and are a little more optimistic than today. Even so, chances still look minimal, and QPF paltry. Tuesday night, another 40+kt LLJ develops, yielding a carbon copy of tonight, with convection gradually diminishing w/loss of daytime heating. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 301 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Middle of the coming week remains warm as the ridge to the east keeps temperatures above normal in the upper 90s to low 100s areawide. A few spots may need a Heat Advisory issued for the afternoon as temperatures in the mountains and down along the Rio Grande reach near or just above criteria. Showers and storms will be possible over the high elevations. Pattern changes on Thursday as the ridge to the east weakens and moves further east. The Four Corners ridge moves in from the West and brings northwesterly flow aloft. This will bring shortwave trough around the edge of the ridge and into our region. Increased rain chances will be seen Thursday through Saturday with the highest chances on Friday. There remains some uncertainty with storm coverage and amounts, but guidance continues to be in good agreement on most areas receiving at least some measurable rainfall. -Stickney && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1021 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in return flow, gusty this afternoon. Forecast soundings develop a widespread cu field by or shortly after issuance time, w/bases ~ 7-9 kft AGL, and a lesser one near the end of the forecast period, w/bases ~ 6-7 kft AGL. Convective chances are slim-to-none. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 76 104 76 103 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 76 103 76 102 / 10 10 20 30 Dryden 73 102 75 100 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 75 103 75 103 / 0 10 0 10 Guadalupe Pass 72 94 73 93 / 10 20 30 50 Hobbs 73 101 74 101 / 0 10 10 10 Marfa 64 97 66 98 / 10 20 20 30 Midland Intl Airport 76 101 75 101 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 76 102 76 101 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 77 106 77 106 / 0 0 0 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....93 AVIATION...44