992
ACUS11 KWNS 220338
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220338
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-220445-

Mesoscale Discussion 1370
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1038 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Areas affected...Parts of eastern NE and western/northern IA

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 445...

Valid 220338Z - 220445Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 445
continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat may continue this evening, but
downstream watch issuance is not anticipated at this time.

DISCUSSION...The leading cell in a band of loosely organized
convection in central/eastern NE recently produced a measured severe
wind gust to 50 kt (58 mph) in Merrick County NE. A separate area of
thunderstorms also remains over northern IA, along and near a front.
Recent VWP trends from KOAX/KDMX have shown a gradual increase in a
low-level jet, and related 0-1-km shear. Transient low-level
rotation and perhaps a brief tornado will remain possible in the
short term with updrafts embedded within these broader areas of
convection. But, isolated severe/damaging winds up to 60 mph should
remain the primary threat in the short term, with around 1000-1500
J/kg of MLCAPE and a minimum in MLCIN noted in the latest
mesoanalysis estimates of instability across eastern NE and
western/northern IA. A local extension in area and expiration time
of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 445 remains a possibility across parts
of eastern NE and vicinity. But, given current expectations that the
overall severe threat will become increasingly isolated with time
late this evening, additional/downstream watch issuance is not
currently anticipated.

..Gleason/Edwards.. 06/22/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...

LAT...LON   41149816 41509729 43099607 43459482 43179344 41159592
            40789737 41149816