Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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598 ACUS11 KWNS 282225 SWOMCD SPC MCD 282224 NDZ000-290000- Mesoscale Discussion 1464 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0524 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Areas affected...portions of northern North Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 282224Z - 290000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe hail/wind are possible this afternoon. Given the isolated nature of the severe threat, a WW issuance is not currently expected. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are intensifying along a pronounced baroclinic boundary that resides immediately ahead of an approaching 500 mb vort max along the ND/MT border region. Along this boundary, 8 C/km 0-3 km lapse rates are present, boosting the 0-3 km CAPE to over 150 J/kg in spots (per 22Z mesoanalysis). Given modest deep-layer shear, shorter-lived multicells capable of isolated instances of severe hail and wind are expected. If more dominant, cellular convection can anchor to the boundary for any appreciable period of time, a landspout tornado cannot be ruled out. Nonetheless, given how sparse and marginal the severe threat is expected to be, a WW issuance is not currently anticipated. ..Squitieri/Smith.. 06/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... LAT...LON 49080303 49200144 48740018 48239969 47709973 47360017 47300058 47510127 47960196 49080303