883
ACUS11 KWNS 042202
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042201
OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-050000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1536
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0501 PM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024

Areas affected...Portions of western Texas and southeastern New
Mexico

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 042201Z - 050000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Severe storms with a few severe gusts and perhaps some
marginally severe hail are possible this afternoon across portions
of west Texas and southeast New Mexico. A watch is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Storms are ongoing this afternoon near the Texas/New
Mexico border and across the southern Texas Panhandle in an
environment characterized by large dewpoint depressions and
inverted-V thermodynamic profiles per surface observations and
short-term RAP forecasts. These storms are also situated well south
of the best deep layer shear in an environment with 20 kts or less
of effective bulk shear. Due to the large evaporative cooling
potential with the inverted-V thermodynamic profiles and steep
low-level lapse rates, some downburst activity is possible, and this
may result in a few severe gusts. Additionally, with the deep CAPE
profile, most of which is above the freezing level, some marginally
severe hail is possible with some of the stronger storms. With time,
storms expected to continue moving slowly to the east with
short-term guidance dissipating most convection near sunset.
Additionally, some storm clustering and merging of cold pools may
occur, and this may also result in a risk for severe gusts.

..Supinie/Hart.. 07/04/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON   33020444 34200365 34620281 34820159 34850011 34609975
            34289968 33400077 32520152 30810237 30140331 30180393
            31550452 33020444