780
FXUS64 KMEG 300814
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
314 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

One more day of hot and humid conditions for portions of the Mid-
South before a cold front sweeps through the region this evening.
Expect pleasant conditions on Monday as north winds return before
heat and humidity resume late Tuesday. Additional rain chances
exist for the end of the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Expect hot and humid conditions to come to a close today as a cold
front, currently situated over southwest Kentucky, pushes into
the Mid-South. As of 3AM, showers and storms continue to develop
ahead of the aforementioned boundary with the bulk of activity
centered along the Mississippi River. Over the next few hours,
expect showers and storms to dissipate with areas south of I-40
remaining mostly dry through sunrise.

Unfortunately, heat indices above 105F & 109F remain likely today
for areas in eastern Arkansas, southwest Tennessee, and north
Mississippi. As such, a Heat Advisory and Excessive Heat Warning
will go into effect at 10AM with areas in the Mississippi Delta
included in the Excessive Heat Warning. One caveat to this
forecast: the potential for redevelopment of showers and storms
this afternoon. Any storms that do develop will be scattered in
nature, but have the potential to cool areas below heat headline
criteria. Overall confidence for location and timing of
redevelopment remains low, hence the continuation of heat
headlines.

By Monday, much drier air will filter into the Mid-South with
dewpoints dropping to the 60s. This relief will be brief as south
winds resume on Tuesday, advecting higher dewpoints back to the
Mid-South. Heat headlines will likely resume on Wednesday as
afternoon temperatures reach the mid 90s. However, long term
guidance continues to hint at a pattern change towards the end of
the week as several shortwave troughs impact the region. Daily
chances for showers and storms will resume on Thursday with more
widespread rainfall anticipated this upcoming weekend.

ANS

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1122 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Showers and thunderstorms are moving across portions of north
central Arkansas. Some of this activity should reach northeast
Arkansas in the next couple of hours. Low confidence in much of
this activity reaching the Mississippi River overnight. Another
round of thunderstorms should develop over portions of west
Tennessee and north Mississippi Sunday afternoon before ending by
early Sunday evening. VFR conditions should continue for the
entire forecast period. Winds should be mainly from the southwest
around 5 knots overnight before shifting to the northwest in the
morning. North winds around 10 knots are expected in the afternoon
with winds shifting to the northeast over western sections of the
Mid-South Sunday evening.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for ARZ036-048-049.

     Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this
     evening for ARZ058.

MO...None.
MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for MSZ001>006-009-013>017-023-024.

     Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this
     evening for MSZ007-008-010>012-020>022.

TN...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for TNZ088>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...ARS