504
FXUS62 KMFL 012345
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
745 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 221 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

The remnants of a shortwave that moved through south Florida late
last week have elongated and finally moved south of the region.
This will remove the remaining deep layer contributions to ascent
and focus convection along the convergent ESErly flow regime.
Tonight will feature less coverage of storms offshore with
isolated to scattered activity moving inland off the Atlantic
coast by the morning tomorrow. Tomorrow afternoon, seabreeze
convection will develop across the interior and move west towards
the Gulf coast. Convection and cloud debris will keep highs
tomorrow in the lower 90s with heat indices in the low 100s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 221 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

A rather stout mid level ridge will move into the Southeastern
portion of the country and remain parked in place through the middle
and latter portion of the week. At the surface, high pressure
centered in the western Atlantic will extend back into South Florida
as well as the eastern Gulf of Mexico during this time frame. This
will allow for a typical summertime pattern to remain in place
across the region. The development of shower and thunderstorm
activity will be sea breeze driven during this time frame and the
east coast sea breeze will be dominate due to the general east to
southeasterly wind flow in place. This will result in convection
starting over the local waters as well as the east coast each
morning before shifting towards the interior and west coast in the
afternoon and early evening hours. With a lack of mid to upper level
support, the chances for strong thunderstorm development will remain
very limited during this time frame. However, an isolated strong
storm cannot be ruled out mainly over the interior sections each
afternoon containing gusty winds and heavy downpours.

As the ridge builds and moves closer to the region as the week
progresses, temperatures will gradually moderate heading towards the
end of the week. High temperatures for the middle of the week will
generally range from around 90 along the east coast to the lower 90s
across Southwest Florida. By the end of the week, high temperatures
will range from the lower 90s across the east coast metro areas to
the mid 90s across interior Southwest Florida.

The mid level ridge will gradually push into the western Atlantic
heading into the upcoming weekend as a mid level trough amplifies as
it dives into the Northern and Central Plains. While the ridge will
still remain in control of the weather pattern across South Florida,
uncertainty starts to rise as the lower level wind flow begins to
become more south to southeasterly. The latest guidance is hinting
at some deeper layer moisture pushing to the region as the weekend
progresses. With guidance remaining in disagreement with timing of
this moisture push combined with this being towards the end of the
forecast period, the uncertainty remains high for this part of the
forecast. High temperatures over the weekend will generally remain
around 90 along the east coast to the lower to mid 90s over
Southwest Florida.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 739 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

East-southeast flow at 10 knots or less and generally VFR
conditions through the 00Z TAF period. Showers will be possible
along the east coast Tuesday morning, and may result in brief
periods of MVFR conditions. Shower and thunderstorm activity will
be primarily focused over interior and Gulf Coast areas during
the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 221 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Light to moderate ESE flow and low seas will prevail over the
coming week. Scattered storms over the Gulf Stream are expected
each morning, drifting into the Gulf each evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            79  91  80  90 /  30  60  30  50
West Kendall     77  91  79  91 /  30  60  30  50
Opa-Locka        79  91  80  92 /  30  60  30  50
Homestead        79  90  80  90 /  40  50  30  50
Fort Lauderdale  79  89  81  89 /  30  50  30  50
N Ft Lauderdale  80  90  81  90 /  30  60  20  50
Pembroke Pines   79  92  80  93 /  30  60  30  50
West Palm Beach  79  91  79  90 /  20  60  20  50
Boca Raton       79  91  80  91 /  30  60  20  50
Naples           77  91  79  93 /  40  70  30  70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...Culver