534
FXUS66 KMFR 280406
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
906 PM PDT Thu Jun 27 2024

.DISCUSSION....Weak ridging will remain over the area tonight. Some
marine stratus is expected to develop later on and may also impact
portions of the Camas Valley/Umpqua Basin. Other than that, skies
are clear and will remain that way overnight. No changes are
planned this evening. Please see previous discussion below for
details regarding weather Friday into this weekend and beyond.
-Spilde


&&

.AVIATION...28/00Z TAFS...Some lower cu is lingering across
Oregon this evening with VFR conditions across the rest of the
region. We`re anticipating some more IFR to LIFR ceilings along
the coast tonight as high pressure builds. Some of MVFR ceilings
will spread into the Umpqua Basin over KRBG later tonight. Some
data shows high confidence in ceilings less than 1000 feet, some
models show lacking moisture in the boundary layer overnight.
Clear skies are anticipated for most of the afternoon and evening
on Friday.

-Smith


&&

.MARINE...Updated 245 PM Thursday, June 27, 2024...A return
of gusty northerly winds is present through tomorrow, with steep
seas affecting areas south of Cape Blanco. Winds and seas will peak
late tomorrow afternoon and evening, with steep seas continuing
south of Cape Blanco. Winds and seas lower Saturday and Sunday. Then
gusty northerly winds and elevated seas are expected early next
week. -Hermansen


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 218 PM PDT Thu Jun 27 2024/

DISCUSSION...Weak ridging has started to build into the region
today, contributing to the slow erosion of this morning`s marine
stratus along the coast and in the Umpqua Basin.

The pattern of westerly flow aloft looks to produce a stable air
mass over our area during the next week, with near or very
slightly above normal temperatures from tomorrow/Friday into early
next week. The slow passage of another weaker trough is expected
to bring high clouds across the area Friday night into early
Saturday, and also increase the coverage and duration of coastal
low clouds Saturday night through Monday night, especially north
of Cape Blanco.

This same system may destabilize the atmosphere enough to produce
some isolated thunderstorms east of the Cascades Sunday
afternoon. Only a few model solutions indicate this, and the
expected pattern is one that has been known to produce convection
before, but given the dry conditions, confidence is too low to
include thunder at this time.

There is a likelihood of further warming from Tuesday through the
long holiday weekend (Day 6 through 10), and a little more than
50% of ECMWF ensemble members indicate strong warming by Thursday.
Meantime, the mean and majority solution of GEFS members is not
quite as bullish. So, the most likely scenarios are hot or very
hot. The warmer scenario for late in the week would also include
both an episode of northeast low level winds with downslope
warming for Brookings, and then up to a few days of stronger
westerly winds on the east side. -DW/BPN

AVIATION 27/18Z TAFS...Marine moisture is sustaining low ceilings
along the Oregon coast, with MVFR ceilings and local IFR. Local
visibility reductions are possible in drizzle. Low clouds will clear
through this morning with conditions becoming VFR along the coast.
Inland, mid level clouds and local MVFR ceilings are present from
the Cascades west this morning. These ceilings will continue
clearing and turn to VFR today. East of the Cascades and across
northern California, VFR conditions are expected through the TAF
period. -Hermansen

MARINE...Updated 215 PM Thursday, June 27, 2024...A return
of gusty northerly winds is present through tomorrow, with steep
seas affecting areas south of Cape Blanco. Winds and seas will peak
late tomorrow afternoon and evening, with steep seas continuing
south of Cape Blanco and an area of very steep hazardous seas
possible between 5 and 20 nm from shore south of Brookings. Winds
and seas lower Saturday and Sunday. Then gusty northerly winds and
elevated seas are expected early next week. -Hermansen

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Saturday
     for PZZ356-376.

&&

$$

MAS/CZS