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Flash Flood Guidance
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
882 AWUS01 KWNH 272301 FFGMPD COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-280500- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0508 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 700 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Areas affected...Southern UT...Northeastern AZ...Western NM Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 272300Z - 280500Z SUMMARY...Flash flooding is likely to continue into this evening as backbuilding and training thunderstorms cause scattered instances of flash flooding. Locally significant flash flooding expected. DISCUSSION...Backbuilding and training thunderstorms continue across Utah and northeastern Arizona this afternoon and evening as the passage of an upper level shortwave and unidirectional WSW flow of anomalously high and near daily record moisture fuels strong thunderstorms capable of locally heavy rainfall to 2 inches per hour. Training storms will continue to cause and add to ongoing flash flooding, resulting in some locally significant flash flooding through this evening. SPC Mesoanalysis shows SBCAPE values in this area remain as high as 3,000 J/kg...showing that the WSW flow continues to advect instability into the area and the storms so far have not depleted the instability. Thus, the storms should have no problem maintaining their strength into the evening. Anomalous moisture feeding the storms that are moving towards the east and northeast are running into the local terrain across Utah and Arizona. Ongoing and new flash flooding is likely as the storms continue to train over many of the same areas. The unidrectional flow is allowing upslope into the terrain to contribute to the potential flash flooding as storms get hung up along the terrain, increasing the time of heavy rain locally. Loss of diurnal heating and the departure of the upper level shortwave reducing the environmental forcing should allow for a slow diminishing of thunderstorm activity after sunset. However, local upslope may slow that process along the mountains. Wegman ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...FGZ...GJT...SLC...VEF... ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 39671187 39621064 39541029 39350993 38750966 38380881 37990874 37300942 36860916 36110809 35450777 34550733 33810904 33780934 33670954 34131019 34421087 34811162 35381212 36031219 36381254 37131255 37421267 38981295