074
FXUS63 KMPX 280012
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
712 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Next round of active weather arrives late this evening and
  continues into Friday. Slight Risk (Level 2/5) for severe
  weather across southern Minnesota Friday, where scattered
  strong to severe storms are possible.

- Quiet weekend weather on tap, followed by the next weather
  system capable of producing heavy rain and possible severe
  storms Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Rain showers have moved into the southern half of MN early this
afternoon and will continue pushing east into this evening. Despite
the large layer of dry air in the 12Z MPX RAOB, the precip has
maintained its strength and should result in a tenth or two of
accumulation. Additionally, redevelopment of showers and
possible thunderstorms looks likely tonight across MN as an
upper-level trough and low-level WAA impinge on the region.
Currently, central to northern MN is most favored where forcing
will be greatest but precip could expand all of the way down
into northern IA. This activity will slowly push east, exiting
our WI counties by early Friday afternoon. 0.5-1" of rain is
possible for the northern half of MN while amounts will decrease
southward. During Friday, clouds will be slow to break apart
following the precip but highs should still be warm across MN
with mid to upper 70s. There is also a possibility of a 2nd
round of scattered showers and thunderstorms during the
afternoon, mainly across southern MN, if enough daytime heating
occur to cause instability within the near 70 dewpoints. There
is a chance for one or two of the storms to become severe with
large hail and damaging winds being the main threats. A cold
front will push through Friday night into Saturday morning,
largely ending precip chances for the weekend and bringing in a
milder, more comfortable air mass. Thus, this looks like a great
weekend for outdoor activities as highs are forecast in the
upper 60s to mid 70s with abundant sun. Perhaps a few rain
showers could exist across our WI counties underneath the upper-
level cyclonic flow Saturday but a washout is not expected.

However, precip chances do return Monday through at least Tuesday as
another trough within the progressive, wavy pattern arrives into the
Northern Plains. This trough will be rather slow moving, keeping
rain chances into Tuesday night. Once this trough passes east,
theoretically another break in the precip would seem likely.
However, long-range model solutions begin to diverge in their
evolution of the upper-level pattern past next Wednesday. EPS, GEFS,
and Canadian ensemble QPF guidance does favor 1" to possibly up to
2" for portions of the MPX CWA throughout next week. Thus, it seems
like a low possibility that we experience any lengthy dry periods or
drying out of soil moisture. On the other hand, for at least the
next 2 weeks, temperatures are favored to stay closer to normal for
early July (highs generally in the the upper 70s to lower 80s).
Thus, at least we won`t have to deal with any stifling hot, muggy
weather for the time being.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 712 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

The first batch of light rain was moving through the area,
oriented in a northwest to southeast band. This will last a few
hours in any given area. After that, there will still be
precipitation, just more off and on. Two bouts of storms are
possible - one late tonight and the other Friday afternoon.
Confidence in this is only average. Winds will strengthen late
tonight with the approach of an upper trough. Finally there is
the matter of MVFR/IFR ceilings. MVFR does look to be a good bet
later this evening and overnight. Models are rather consistent
with developing IFR Friday after 10Z, and given the low level
moisture in the wake of the rain, IFR is plausible and have it
in most of the TAFs.

KMSP...the two main concerns are the potential for south winds
to gust above 30 knots Friday morning during the time when IFR
ceilings are widespread, and then the thunderstorm chance Friday
afternoon. If low clouds linger into much of the afternoon, the
thunderstorm chance will be lower.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G25 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind N bcmg E 5-10 kts.
MON...VFR/MVFR, chc -TSRA. Wind SE 10-15G25 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...TDK