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Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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700 FXUS06 KWBC 181902 PMDMRD Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 300 PM EDT Tue June 18 2024 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 24 - 28 2024 An overall zonal mid-level flow pattern is forecast over the Contiguous U.S. (CONUS) by todays GEFS, ECMWF and Canadian ensemble means, with a short wave trough developing and moving over the coast of the Pacific Northwest. Weak positive 500-hPa height anomalies are forecast across most of the CONUS by the ECMWF ensemble mean, and over the western CONUS in the GEFS ensemble mean forecast. Negative 500-hPa height anomalies are predicted over much of Canada and near (0Z ECMWF ensemble mean) or over (0Z GEFS ensemble mean) the Canadian border into the northern CONUS. Weak 500-hPa height anomalies are predicted over Alaska by the GEFS, and positive 500-hPa height anomalies are predicted by the ECMWF ensemble mean. Above-normal temperatures are favored across nearly all of the CONUS, except for parts of the Pacific Northwest, under positive 500-hPa height anomalies and zonal flow. Below-normal temperatures are favored for parts of the Pacific Northwest, under a predicted trough later in the period. Below-normal temperatures are favored for the Aleutians and parts of the west coast of Mainland Alaska, supported by most dynamical model forecasts. Below-normal temperatures are also favored for southern areas of the Alaska Panhandle, ahead of a predicted trough. Above normal temperatures are favored over interior Mainland Alaska, supported by the temperature consolidation of calibrated GEFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts. Above-normal precipitation is slightly favored for the eastern Aleutians and much of Mainland Alaska, supported by most dynamical model precipitation forecasts, while below-normal precipitation is slightly favored for extreme northwestern areas of the Mainland Alaska coast. Above-normal precipitation is favored for the Pacific Northwest, ahead of a predicted trough, while below-normal precipitation is favored for most interior areas of the West, under positive 500-hPa height anomalies. Above-normal precipitation is slightly favored for much of the eastern CONUS, following the consolidation and most dynamical model precipitation tools. Above-normal precipitation and below-normal temperatures are favored for Hawaii, based on dynamical model-based precipitation tools. The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 35% of Today`s 0z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 40% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, and 25% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Average, 3 out of 5, due to good agreement among the temperature tools offset by a less amplified circulation pattern and weak precipitation signals. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 26 - JUL 02, 2024 Generally, a zonal mid-level flow pattern continues over the CONUS the week 2, while a trough is predicted to move into the Pacific Northwest during the period. Positive 500-hPa height anomalies continue across most of the CONUS in the ensemble means, with more amplified anomalies over the East. Near-zero or slightly negative 500-hPa height anomalies are predicted over parts of the northwestern CONUS. Weak 500-hPa height anomalies are predicted over Mainland Alaska by most model solutions, and positive 500-hPa height anomalies are predicted over the western Aleutians. Above-normal temperatures are favored across nearly all of the CONUS, except for parts of the Pacific Northwest, under positive 500-hPa height anomalies. Below-normal temperatures are favored for parts of the Pacific Northwest, under a predicted trough. Below-normal temperatures are favored for the Aleutians and parts of the west coast of Mainland Alaska, under primarily northerly flow. Below-normal temperatures are also favored for southern areas of the Alaska Panhandle, ahead of a predicted trough. Above normal temperatures are favored over interior Mainland Alaska, supported by calibrated ECMWF temperature forecasts. Above-normal precipitation is slightly favored for most of Mainland Alaska, supported by the precipitation consolidation. Above-normal precipitation is favored for the Pacific Northwest, ahead of a predicted trough, while below-normal precipitation is favored for most interior areas of the West, under positive 500-hPa height anomalies. Above-normal precipitation is favored for the north-central CONUS and for the southern CONUS from the Southwest to the Southeast, consistent with the consolidation of calibrated model precipitation. Above-normal precipitation and below-normal temperatures are favored for Hawaii, based on dynamical model-based precipitation tools. The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 35% of Today`s 0z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 40% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 25% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Average, 3 out of 5, due to good agreement among the temperature tools offset by a less amplified circulation pattern and weak precipitation signals. FORECASTER: D Collins Notes: Automated forecasts are issued on Saturday and Sunday. Occasionally manual intervention is necessary to address quality control and consistency issues. In these cases, forecasts are manually drawn but a full discussion is not issued. The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as that in the tables: A-above N-near normal B-below The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "N"). Historical average values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "f"). Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "n"). Historical median values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "inches"). Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons. In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no precipitation. The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in the climate outlooks. The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on June 20. Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates: 19530627 - 19970627 - 19940613 - 19990702 - 19690628 Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates: 19590528 - 19530627 - 19990701 - 19970626 - 19940615 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Jun 24 - 28 2024 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA A A COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A N KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A N NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL B N 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Jun 26 - Jul 02, 2024 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A N IDAHO N B NEVADA A B W MONTANA N N E MONTANA N N WYOMING A N UTAH A N ARIZONA A A COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL N N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$