Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
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818 FXUS63 KOAX 270529 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1229 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Moderate flooding is ongoing or expected to begin along the Missouri River the next day or two. It`s forecast to last into next week for Omaha and points south. - Strong to severe storms will be possible Thursday night into Friday and again Friday afternoon into Friday night. These could produce heavy rain and localized flash flooding in addition to hail and damaging winds. - Quiet and cooler for the weekend, with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Then warming back up and becoming more active for next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 340 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Pretty quiet across the region early this afternoon with surface high pressure off to the north helping to keep us clear and dry. Also notably "cooler" today, though temperatures were still pretty summer-like, with readings as of 3 PM mostly in the lower to mid 80s. The dry weather won`t last long though, as some shortwave energy currently beginning to rounding a ridge centered over the Rockies will push into the area early Thursday morning, bringing at least some scattered showers and perhaps a few isolated storms (though instability will be lacking). That precip and cloud cover will linger through much of the day and keep us even cooler, with some locations even failing to crack 80 degrees. Probably a welcome change for most, but you might need to dodge some showers if you want to be outside. Attention then turns to warm front and narrow plume of instability approaching from the west Thursday night into early Friday. Guidance is in pretty good agreement that the instability will largely remain to our west and deep layer shear will remain relatively weak, but still could see a few stronger storms move into our area. Anything that does move in could produce locally heavy rain/flooding, as guidance suggests precipitable water values of 2-2.25 inches and warm cloud depths near 4.5 km. If we were somehow able to get a little more instability into our area, the flash flooding threat would increase even more. We could have another opportunity for strong to severe storms on Friday as well as a surface low pushes through the Dakotas and drags a cold front through the area. However, the risk will largely depend on how much instability we`re able to build, with some signs that precip from Friday morning could linger through much of the day. If we`re able to build instability, deep layer shear in vicinity of the front looks sufficient for organized severe storms and once again the environment would be conducive to efficient rain producers, yielding another flash flooding threat. The potential for lingering precip will also play a large role in temperatures. While we`ll be firmly in the warm sector behind the warm front, the clouds and precip should limit temperatures to the mid 80s to lower 90s (though still very humid). However, if we see a few breaks in the clouds we could see some mid 90s in there and with the humidity in place, some places could see triple digit heat index values. Overall, confidence is on the lower side on how all of Friday will pan out. Surface high pressure behind the cold front and upper level ridging approaching from the west should lead to a mostly quiet weekend with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s. There are some signs of some weak shortwave energy being present in the ridge as it pushes in late Sunday, which could lead to some more showers and storms, though a bulk of the weekend should be pretty nice...though maybe a touch breezy at times if we`re being picky (20-25 mph gusts). Heading into next week, the active pattern looks to return as broad troughing to zonal flow sets up over the western and central CONUS and bits of shortwave energy slide through. Still lots of details to work out regarding exact timing and strength of any system, but the overall pattern favors a return to warm weather with almost daily storm chances. Last, but certainly not least, the active pattern is definitely worth monitoring when it comes to ongoing flooding along the Missouri River basin. While it would take a very large amount of rain to significantly alter any current forecasts, the repeated rounds of rain could lead to river levels remaining elevated for slightly longer than currently forecast. Also for what it`s worth, the overall trend in guidance through Friday night is to keep the heaviest rainfall just to our south and east. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1226 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail. Light rain showers are expected to move into KOFK by 08-10Z and persist through a majority of the forecast period. Confidence is low in this round of overnight showers reaching KOMA and KLNK. A second round of light rain showers are expected to approach KOMA and KLNK in the 22-02Z timeframe. Calm and variable winds overnight will shift to southeasterly after sunrise with gusts up to 25 kts possible through the afternoon. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CA AVIATION...Wood