695
FXUS64 KOHX 300530
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1230 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 824 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Today`s heat advisories have expired as of 8 PM CDT, but it
remains quite hot and humid with early evening heat index values
still in the 90s. Very muggy conditions will continue through the
night with lows once again only dropping to the mid to upper 70s.

Only a couple of tiny showers were noted on radar, but coverage
will increase later tonight as a front approaches form the
northwest. No severe storms are expected, but local downpours will
accompany any boomers. As the front moves southeastward across the
area Sunday, the greatest coverage of showers and storms will
focus over the southeast half of our area with a few strong storms
possible. The hottest temps will be focused ahead of the front, south
of I-40. Even though northern areas will not be under a heat
advisory Sunday, we will not feel much relief from the frontal
passage until Monday when substantially drier air will move in.
Sadly, it will here only one day then the icky conditions will
return for the rest of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

We are in for another hot day across Middle TN. Current
temperatures across the area are similar to a few degrees warmer
than yesterday this time and overall highs will be similar to
yesterday. The big difference will be the higher dew points, they
are running a few degrees higher than yesterday and we won`t see
them mix out much this afternoon. This is going to lead to heat
index values 105 to 110 during the afternoon and early evening.

Upper level trough and surface low are working through the Great
Lakes dropping a cold front south. This cold front will be the
main focus for thunderstorms and should remain to our north today
but will start to push south later this evening into tomorrow.
Can`t rule out some pop up t-storms this afternoon but very poor
lapse rates between 850-500 mb will really limit our chances.
Scattered storms along the cold front to our north will start to
push south into our area after 10 pm tonight and will continue to
work south during the overnight likely becoming less widespread.
Soundings continue to show poor lapse rates overnight along with
low shear, this will keep the threat for strong storms low but
still can`t rule out heavy rain and isolated gusty winds.

The front will be working south through our area on Sunday. This
will keep scattered shower and thunderstorm chances in the
forecast. The best chances will be for areas south of I-40 and
east of I-65 during the afternoon. Lapse rates look slightly
better tomorrow compared to today but still don`t look great and
we do see some dry air above 500 mb but shear still remain lows.
Overall with this in mind the threat for strong storms is low but
some may produce gusty winds 40-60 mph along with heavy rain. The
thunderstorm threat is expected to diminish by 7 pm. Highs will be
a bit cooler in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Cooler drier air will be working in behind the front on Monday and
that is going to bring great weather. We will see highs in the 80s
and dew points as low as the mid 50s! Unfortunately the cooler
more comfortable weather will not last as upper level ridging
builds over the region and we see highs push back into the 90s.
This will bring the return of hot weather lasting through the
week. By mid-week the high will be just to our east with a low to
the north over Canada, this is going to give us direct flow off
the Gulf and push our dew points into the mid to upper 70s. This
means heat index values above 100 including for the 4th of July
Holiday. Starting Tuesday night we will also see very warm
overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s, this will bring little to
no relief to those without air conditioning. Forcing will be weak
during the week but with the high dew points popup afternoon and
evening thunderstorms will be possible each day staring Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

For the most part VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.
A cold front is trying to work its way through the mid south and
Tennessee overnight and into the day on Sunday. It is summertime
and cold fronts tend to loose umph this time of year. Some TS may
be possible this morning/afternoon with this front. Confidence is
not all that great so indicated the best time with P6SM
-SHRA/VCTS. Wanted to try and give the best indication for time as
 06Z TAFs tend to be utilized for planning purposed for the day.
 The only way conditions won/t stay VFR at a TAF site is if a
 thunderstorms passes directly over a terminal. In this case the
 storms should move in such that they won/t be long lived.

Winds will be NW and swing around to N with the weak frontal
passage. High resolution models are indicating some gusty winds
after sunset /after 01/00Z/. Haven/t gone as gusty as models
indicate.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      92  64  85  63 /  60   0   0   0
Clarksville    88  60  82  60 /  40   0   0   0
Crossville     86  56  79  57 /  80  10   0   0
Columbia       93  62  84  60 /  70  10   0   0
Cookeville     87  58  79  59 /  70  10   0   0
Jamestown      85  57  78  57 /  70  10   0   0
Lawrenceburg   92  61  83  59 /  70  10   0   0
Murfreesboro   93  62  84  60 /  70  10   0   0
Waverly        89  61  81  61 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
for Bedford-Cannon-Coffee-Giles-Hickman-Lawrence-Lewis-Marshall-
Maury-Perry-Rutherford-Wayne-Williamson.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......13
SHORT TERM...Mueller
LONG TERM....Mueller
AVIATION.....12