168
FXUS61 KOKX 111444
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1044 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold frontal boundary will slowly push south of Long
Island today into tonight. High pressure then builds in from the
north and east going into this weekend. A warm front approaches
early Sunday, followed by a cold front approaching Sunday night.
High pressure eventually returns early next week, building in
through the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
While fog has not been observed too much this morning within the
forecast region, there have been reports of some light drizzle
in different portions of the area. Any fog and drizzle expected
to diminish later this morning when there is more warmth.

A slow moving cold front boundary pushes farther south through
today. The frontal boundary will also be weakening. Looking
aloft, ridging is taking place as a shortwave and its associated
jet streak move farther northeast of the region. There won`t be
much steering flow.

CAMs depicting some shower and thunderstorm activity along a
daytime trough developing across the interior with some
interaction with higher terrain. Convective initiation appears
to be delayed in some of the CAMs until mid to late afternoon.

The convection is expected to be isolated to scattered and
restricted to mainly north and west of NYC where there will be
higher CAPE.

More sun is expected but extra clouds with convection and some
easterly component to the flow will limit the high temperature
potential. Used a blend of MAVs and NBM, ranging mainly within
the 80s, highest across parts of the interior and NE NJ. Without
much change in dewpoint, heat indices reach a few degrees higher
than the actual temperature. However, they still max out in the
lower 90s range, below advisory criterion.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
With the lack of synoptic forcing aloft tonight, would expect
any shower or thunderstorm activity to rapidly diminish this
evening with the loss of diurnal instability. Models are showing
however some increase in shortwave activity late tonight into
early Saturday morning with some increase in upper level winds.
Might have a shower or thunderstorm across parts of the interior
with otherwise a mainly dry night expected.

Light southeast flow at the surface tonight as well as
abundance of clouds will help mitigate radiational cooling. Lows
forecast tonight will only be ranging mainly from upper 60s to
lower 70s. Another round of late night into early morning fog is
forecast, but kept more areas across the interior with coverage
more patchy elsewhere. HRRR indicated this fog development
offshore and moving into the area from the low level southeast
flow.

For the rest of this weekend, with daytime instability each day,
potential for showers and thunderstorms, mainly north and west
of NYC. Airmass remains very warm and humid but looks like heat
indices still expected to remain below advisory thresholds.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A broad mid level trough centered over the Upper Great Lakes
translates east into early next week, helping advance a frontal
system toward and through the region, bringing increased chances
for a more widespread rainfall, especially on Monday ahead of
the cold front. Parameters appear at least marginally supportive
of thunderstorm development, but steering flow appears
progressive enough to mitigate significant flood concerns.

Conditions dry behind the fropa into midweek as weak high pressure
drifts in and NW flow aloft looks to lower the humidity.
Temperatures through the period look to largely stay in the 80s most
afternoons thru early week, with a gradual warm up then into mid
next week.

National blended guidance was followed for this update.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A weak frontal boundary slowly shifts south of the terminals
through tonight.

Flight categories are improving as low cigs are gradually
eroding late this morning. Most return to VFR by 16Z, but MVFR
could linger at KISP and KGON into early afternoon. A shower or
thunderstorm remains possible at KSWF late afternoon and early
this evening.

Conditions should start falling back to MVFR or IFR tonight, but
timing and extent remain uncertain.

Light NE or variable flow to start will gradually become SE
into the afternoon. Wind speeds will remain under 10 kt. Winds
become light and variable tonight.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

MVFR may linger an hour longer late this morning.

Low confidence with flight categories tonight.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Saturday-Sunday: Mainly VFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms
during the afternoon and early evening near and northwest of the NYC
terminals.

Monday: VFR. Showers and thunderstorms possible, mainly in the
afternoon and evening.

Tuesday: VFR. Showers or thunderstorm possible in the afternoon and
evening, mainly NYC metro on N and W.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Not much forcing and absence of a steep pressure gradient keeps
conditions below SCA thresholds on all waters through this
weekend.

Light flow and low seas should then maintain sub Small Craft
Advisory conditions on all coastal waters through early next
week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Any thunderstorm that develops could deliver a quick period of
heavy rain and localized minor flooding through this weekend.
PWATs forecast to increase to near 1.7 to 2 inches this weekend.
Most locations expected to stay dry though.

No significant hydro concerns in the long term.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Rip current risk is low through Saturday along Atlantic facing
ocean beaches with onshore flow 5-10 kt and a 3 ft swell from
the southeast at a 7-8 sec period.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...DR/DS
MARINE...JM/DR
HYDROLOGY...JM/DR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...