Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ
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533 FXUS61 KPHI 261846 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 246 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move across the region late tonight through Thursday morning. High pressure then builds in from the north and west before moving offshore by Saturday. A warm front lifts north through the region on Saturday, followed by a cold front on Sunday. High pressure returns for the first half of the new work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... A cold front slowly approaches from the west. A hot and humid airmass is in place over the area with temperatures currently in the 90s and dew points in the 60s. Heat Advisory remains in effect for portions of New Jersey, southeast Pennsylvania, and northern Delaware until 9 pm. Model trends have gone with a slower approach with the development of convection, having initiation in the evening and at night. As a result, by the time convection develops, instability will begin to diminish with loss of diurnal heating. MUCAPE values will range from 1500 to 2500 J/kg along with 35 to 40 kt of 0-6 km Bulk Shear and PWATs around 2 inches. A few storms are possible starting around 6 pm, mainly in the far western zones, but activity begins around 8 pm with the bulk of the activity after 10 pm. By then, MU CAPE values will be down to around 1000 to 1500 J/kg. The primary threat will be damaging wind gusts. With PWATs around 2 inches, heavy rain is a secondary threat. Given that 0-6 km Bulk Shear will be 35 to 40 kt, increasing to 40 to 50 kt, storms should be moving fairly quickly, mitigating the flash flood threat somewhat. Still cannot rule out localized flash flooding. Cold front slowly works through the region tonight, but does not clear the region until Thursday morning. Since it will be quite muggy and dew points will not fall until Thursday afternoon, patchy fog will develop, especially in areas where it rains. Temperatures return to more seasonal levels on Thursday, topping off in the mid to upper 80s. Surface dew points will fall into the 50s during the afternoon as well. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure over the Great Lakes Thursday evening builds east on Friday, and then the center of the high should be east of Cape Cod Friday night. Tranquil conditions expected during this time. Lows Thursday night will generally be in the low to mid 60s, though the southern Poconos could get down into the 50s. Sunny and pleasant on Friday with seasonably warm temperatures. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s, though cooler at the coasts and in the mountains. Due to increasing cloud cover, lows will be a few degrees warmer Friday night compared to Thursday night. On Saturday, low pressure will be moving across the Northern Plains and into the northern Great Lakes. A warm front will develop out ahead of this system, and that will lift through the eastern third of the U.S. Saturday afternoon. Surface dew points will rise into the 70s throughout the region, and with highs in the 80s, heat index values will be in the low to mid 90s. Shortwave energy passing through the region will spark off showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, with locally heavy rain and gusty winds being the primary threats. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Lingering showers and thunderstorms will continue through Saturday night. It will be a warm and humid night with lows in the 70s, though not much below 80 from Philadelphia to Wilmington and in Delmarva. In addition, surface dew points will be well in the 70s, which will make for probably the most uncomfortable night of the season so far. Hot and humid again on Sunday with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s, but surface dew points will be well in the mid to upper 70s. This should yield heat index values in the upper 90s to around 100. A cold front approaches from the west, sparking off another round of showers and thunderstorms, some of which could be severe with damaging winds and heavy rain that could result in localized flooding as PWATs could approach 2.5 inches. Showers and thunderstorms taper off Sunday night as the cold front works its way through the region. High pressure then builds through the first half of the new work week with seasonably warm temperatures and low humidity. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Rest of today...VFR until 00Z. A few SHRA/TSRA may impact KRDG/KABE after 22Z with brief sub-VFR conditions. TSRA at KTTN- KPNE-KPHL-KILG look to hold off until right around 00Z. SW winds 5 to 10 kt, through sea breezes at KACY and KMIV will have winds S 10 to 15 kt. Moderate confidence. Tonight...Several rounds of SHRA/TSRA will impact the terminals. The strongest TSRA will impact the terminals between 00Z and 06Z, then lingering SHRA/TSRA possible thereafter. The strongest storms may produce wind gusts in excess of 40 kt. Sub- VFR conditions in any storms, then MVFR CIGs develop after 06Z. SW winds 5 to 10 kt may become LGT/VRB for a few hours before becoming NW 5 to 10 kt prior to 12Z. Low confidence. Thursday...Lingering MVFR CIGs at KMIV/KACY, otherwise, VFR. W-NW winds 5 to 10 kt in the morning, then around 10 kt with occasional gusts to 20 kt in the afternoon. High confidence. Outlook... Thursday night through Friday...VFR Saturday through Sunday night...VFR overall during the day. Afternoon and evening SHRA/TSRA will result in sub-VFR conditions. Sub- VFR VSBYs in fog possible Saturday night and Sunday night. Monday...VFR. && .MARINE... Will continue the Small Craft Advisory in effect for most of tonight. S winds will continue to increase going into this evening and will range from 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt and seas building to around 5 feet. Winds turn west on Thursday at 10 to 15 kt. There is an area of marine dense fog over southern NJ ocean waters. Will go ahead and issue a Marine Dense Fog Advisory until 10 pm this evening. Showers and thunderstorms tonight will result in wind gusts of 40 kt or higher and VSBY restrictions in heavy rain. Outlook... Thursday night through Friday night...Sub-SCA conditions. Fair weather. Saturday through Sunday night...SCA conditions developing Saturday afternoon through Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms will impact the waters during this time. Monday...Sub-SCA conditions. Rip Currents... Today...South to southwest winds increasing to 15-20 mph, with breaking waves building to 3 to 5 feet along the NJ shore and 2 to 3 feet along the DE beaches. With winds parallel to slightly onshore, we maintain a HIGH risk of rip currents for the Jersey Shore and keep a MODERATE risk for the Delaware beaches. Thursday...West to northwest winds of 10 to 15 mph in the morning become variable in the afternoon. Breaking waves will decline from 2-4 feet early to 1-2 feet late, with lowest along the DE coast. Thus, went with a MODERATE risk along the Jersey shore and a LOW risk along the Delaware beaches. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi && .CLIMATE... Record high temperatures for today. Location Record High (6/26) Philadelphia, PA.......100/1952 Allentown, PA..........99/1952 Reading, PA............102/1952 Mount Pocono, PA.......92/1952 Trenton, NJ............100/1952 AC Airport, NJ.........98/1952 AC Marina, NJ..........99/1952 Wilmington, DE.........99/1952 Georgetown, DE.........99/1952 && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for PAZ070-071-102- 104-106. NJ...Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for NJZ010-012-013- 015-017>020-027. Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ012>015- 017>020-026-027. High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ014- 024>026. DE...Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for DEZ001. MD...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for MDZ012-015. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ450>453. Dense Fog Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ451>453. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ454- 455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPS NEAR TERM...MPS SHORT TERM...MPS LONG TERM...MPS AVIATION...MPS MARINE...MPS CLIMATE...