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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
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799 FXUS65 KRIW 050904 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 304 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Northwest flow continues the agitated weather across northern Wyoming through the upcoming weekend. - Strong ridge builds back across the Intermountain West next week, noting a return to very warm and dry conditions. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 228 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024 The broad trough that has dominated the central US the past several days is slowly showing signs of breaking down, but not before throwing a couple more impulses into northeast WY through this weekend. Short range models note a fast moving impulse moving across MT into far NE WY this afternoon and evening, which will bring enough instability to spark a few showers, mainly limited to the highest elevations of the Bighorn Range. The next impulse is more broad in nature and will dive farther south across the state during the day Saturday. The main focus of convection will be east of the Divide during peak heating Saturday, lingering across Natrona and Johnson County into Sunday. After this trough sweeps to the southeast Sunday, the West Coast ridge shifts east and sets up along the spine of the Rockies. This will deflect most activity more into Canada, while allowing strong heating to build across Wyoming through the week. Highs will build into the upper 80s and 90s by Tuesday, with upper 90s likely by Thursday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1005 PM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024 VFR conditions will occur through the TAF period. There is a chance (20%) that showers/thunderstorms could impact KCPR at the start of the forecast, but these impacts are expected to last very briefly. Lightning will likely be the main impact as well. Otherwise, light winds and SKC skies in place through the rest of the morning. Wind gusts around 25 kt will return to most terminals again Friday afternoon, subsiding after 01Z. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence forecasts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 224 PM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Elevated fire weather conditions will continue across southern fire zones this week. The worst day will be Saturday as wind increases ahead of the next weather system and RH will drop into the teens in the afternoon. Isolated rain showers will pass through northern zones today, but the CWR is very low. Smoke dispersal looks to be at least very good in the afternoon for the next few days at a minimum. As temperatures increase next week it will become very dry. RH values look like they will be in the low teens (possibly upper single digits) for most lower elevations. High pressure will keep it dry, with little to no chance of precip expected for most of next week, at this time. The saving grace is wind will be much lighter than it has been so far this summer thanks to the area of high pressure. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Straub AVIATION...LaVoie FIRE WEATHER...Rowe