Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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498 FXUS61 KRLX 260617 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 217 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front today. Chances of showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday with another cold front. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1035 PM Tuesday... The forecast remains on track. As of 438 PM Tuesday... Radar imagery shows ragged convection decaying as it enters the Mid OH valley late this afternoon. There will be a lull in convection until the next cluster of storms currently north central KY. This activity will approach northeast KY around 00Z, or just cross south of this area by that hour. Abundant cloudiness and cooling showers have refreshed temperatures across northern southeast OH and western WV this afternoon, lowering them about 14 degrees. Adjusted hourly temperatures and dewpoints accordingly. As of 1235 PM Tuesday... Convection from weakening MCS over the midwest this morning is moving into the area. So far much of this has remained sub severe, and bulk of any severe is still anticipated to remain to our west. Latest SPC outlook for day 1 still has just a few of our SE Ohio counties in a marginal, and this seems reasonable given latest trends. Otherwise, should be a bit of a lull in the activity later this evening and the first part of tonight, however, convection looks to reinvigorate overnight across the north out ahead of a cold front and passing shortwave. This should affect our northern zones late tonight/early Wednesday morning. Severe threat with this activity looks to be rather low at this point, but not a non zero risk, and heavy rain is expected. After the Wednesday morning activity, showers and storms will redevelop again during the afternoon and evening hours out ahead of an approaching mid level shortwave trough and the aforementioned cold front. Some of these storms could be strong to severe, with a damaging wind threat, possibly a small tornado threat also, and much of this activity looks to develop towards the end of the near term, and into the short term period. However, there still remains uncertainty as to any effects morning convection will play in the severity of afternoon storms. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 215 AM Wednesday... Models indicate that enough low level moisture will remain behind the cold front to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms in the mountains on Thursday, while others indicate a drier solution. Will keep some small mountain POPs, with a bit better chances in Virginia. More seasonable temperatures can be expected for Thursday. With a high pressure system shifting off to the east on Friday, southerly winds will allow temperatures to climb above normal for this time of year. A few mountain showers and thunderstorms are also once again possible, although most of the region will remain dry. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 215 AM Wednesday... A southerly wind flow and an approaching cold front will increase the chances of showers and thunderstorms area wide on Saturday. Models have a cold front pushing through late Saturday night into Sunday, with better agreement on the timing than previous runs. A high pressure system will provide dry weather behind the front on Monday. Models have some disagreement on the amount of cooler air for Monday, with temperatures either more seasonable or possibly even below normal. The cooler weather will be rather brief, as the high pressure system slides eastward allowing for southerly winds and above normal temperatures by Tuesday afternoon. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 125 AM Wednesday... Warm front approaching from the west lofting some clouds and moisture over the area this morning, most notably across the southern half of the area. A few showers and thunderstorms could form as the warm front moves through early this morning, but expecting a lull in the activity by ~12Z with CIGs forecasted to scatter and lift some ahead of an afternoon round. Scattered thunderstorms and showers will arrive this afternoon as the atmosphere becomes unstable ahead of a cold front, anytime after ~16Z, as a cold front approaches from the west. MVFR and IFR restrictions possible in and around this activity. Light to calm SW`rly flow expected this morning. Winds will pick up after sunrise with mixing, then shift out of the west this afternoon with the FROPA. Winds could be breezy at times during the day and especially in and around showers and thunderstorms. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Coverage, timing and intensity of showers and thunderstorms through the day may differ from the forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 06/26/24 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... Brief IFR possible with thunderstorms today into tonight, and again on Saturday and Sunday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL NEAR TERM...ARJ/SL SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...LTC