194
FXUS61 KRLX 200128
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
928 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The heat wave continues throughout the week courtesy of a broad
upper level ridge. A cold front arrives late Sunday night into
Monday, with showers and storms, and somewhat cooler weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 926 PM Wednesday...

Adjusted hourly temperatures and dewpoints to better match latest
surface observation trends. Added a little of more fog along the
western foothills to cover EKN and CKB with dense fog overnight.
Rest of forecast remains on track.

As of 305 PM Wednesday...

Forecast on track, including a record high temperatures set at
EKN at 90 F so far, breaking the old record of 89 set in 1905.

As of 200 PM Wednesday...

Mid-upper level ridging across the area and beyond, oriented from
west-southwest to east-northeast, and centered near NJ, continues
the hot, dry weather. A weak short wave trough riding across
the eastern Great Lakes and into the northeastern states, along
the north-northwest side of the ridge, flattens it, eventuating
the formation of a second center over the lower Ohio Valley on
Thursday.

The ridge should hold strong enough to keep afternoon convection
associated with the short wave trough this afternoon, and
another Thursday afternoon, just northwest of the forecast area
in Ohio. Otherwise, high clouds associated with the first short
wave trough are forecast to stream eastward with it, crossing
the area through tonight, and then exiting the area on Thursday.

Gradient low level south to southeast flow actually increases a
bit tonight on the west side of surface high pressure, but
should not impact the surface wind forecast much outside of
ridges. Gradient flow then subsides on Thursday in a col between
the high to the east, and another forming over the lower Ohio
Valley.

Drying associated with downslope flow this afternoon should be
minimal Thursday given the lighter and more variable low level
flow. Temperatures, dew points and apparent temperatures should
be similar both afternoons, although middle Ohio Valley
temperatures may be a notch or two higher Thursday with mid-
upper level ridging more directly overhead. This may be enough
to nudge apparent temperatures into the upper 90s there,
otherwise mid 90s should cover it for the lowlands this and
Thursday afternoon.

Temperatures are forecast to come closest to record highs
across our northern official climate sites PKB, CKB and EKN,
this and Thursday afternoon, the latter for which the forecast
calls for a record high there of 91, breaking the current
record of 89 set in 1905, so long as high clouds do not increase
there too much. Refer to the CLIMATE section below.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 206 PM Wednesday...

Ridge of high pressure will continue to remain in control through
Saturday, with above normal temperatures, and occasional showers and
storms during peak heating hours. Although dew points will generally
only be in the 60s during the period, the continuation of
temperatures in the upper 90s to possibly even around 100, should
warrant expansion of the heat advisory in time across much of the
lowland counties through at least Saturday. An isolated severe storm
is possible on Saturday, with a damaging wind threat.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1205 PM Wednesday...

Ridge finally starts to break down on Sunday, as low pressure moves
east across the Great Lakes region, eventually sweeping a cold front
through the area at the start of the long term period. Showers and
thunderstorms will become more numerous on Sunday with the approach
of this system, and an isolated strong to severe storm cannot be
ruled out Sunday and Sunday evening/night. Frontal boundary will
move east of the area on Monday, for drier conditions, as well as a
welcome reprieve from the oppressive heat. Weather beyond Monday is
uncertain at this point, but general consensus at this point is to
maintain mainly dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 736 PM Wednesday...

High pressure surface and aloft will maintains dry weather
conditions under light flow. Therefore, widespread VFR conditions
expected through the period. The exception will at EKN and CKB where
IFR dense fog may develop from 09Z through 12Z Thursday morning.

Light and variable winds will become calm overnight, then light
and variable on Thursday. Winds aloft will be light from the
southwest into Thursday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog may not develop at CKB overnight
tonight. Conversely, it may happen to a lesser extent than
forecast at EKN.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            THU 06/20/24
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 300 PM Wednesday...

A heat wave continues through the weekend. Temperatures
are forecast to approach record highs at some locations on
several days.

The records for Wednesday, June 19 to Sunday, June 23 are
listed below for our official climate sites, along with the
current forecast values.

           Forecast / Record High Temperatures
--------------------------------------------------------
     Wednesday, 6/19 | Thursday, 6/20 |  Friday, 6/21  |
--------------------------------------------------------
CRW | 92 / 98 (1919) | 93 / 99 (1931) | 95 /105 (1931) |
HTS | 93 / 98 (1994) | 94 /100 (1931) | 95 / 99 (1953) |
CKB | 92 / 94 (1994) | 92 / 94 (1931) | 93 / 98 (1953) |
PKB | 93 / 95 (1994) | 94 / 97 (1931) | 96 / 97 (1953) |
BKW | 86 / 90 (1944) | 87 / 92 (1931) | 88 / 93 (1953) |
EKN | 91 / 89 (1905) | 91 / 92 (1931) | 91 / 92 (1953) |
--------------------------------------------------------
      Saturday, 6/22 |  Sunday, 6/23  |
---------------------------------------
CRW | 97 / 98 (1988) | 94 /100 (1929) |
HTS | 99 / 98 (1988) | 96 /100 (1930) |
CKB | 96 / 97 (1923) | 92 / 96 (1957) |
PKB | 98 / 98 (1988) | 93 / 94 (1964) |
BKW | 92 / 92 (1931) | 89 / 91 (1931) |
EKN | 94 / 93 (1923) | 90 / 89 (1899) |
---------------------------------------

Additionally, the all-time June high temperature records may
be neared in some locations. Listed below are the maximum
temperatures currently forecast during the heat wave versus
the all-time June high temperature records.

     Max Forecast  All-time June Record
-----------------------------------------
CRW |     97     |       105 (1931)     |
HTS |     99     |       105 (1930)     |
CKB |     96     |       100 (1925)     |
PKB |     98     |       100 (1988)     |
BKW |     92     |       100 (1936)     |
EKN |     94     |        96 (2012)     |
-----------------------------------------

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>032-039-040.
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/ARJ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...ARJ

CLIMATE...TRM/JLB/GW