968
FXUS63 KSGF 281742
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1242 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms possible (30-60% chance) tonight into Saturday
  morning north of I-44. high winds and large hail will be the
  main concerns, but confidence is limited and coverage may be
  sparse.

- Hot today but especially tomorrow. Heat Index values Saturday up
to 110 south of I-44. Heat Advisory may be needed.

- A break from the heat Sunday with a quick return to hot and humid
conditions early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 302 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Convection is moving east across Kansas this morning as part of a
complex surface setup that extends all the way into Canada just
north of Montana. Thanks to a lack of instability, this activity is
not expected to survive into southwest MO, and if it does it will be
harmless thunderstorms that quickly brush our northwesternmost
counties. The approach of the front is bringing increasing high
cloudcover, however, so we will see partly sunny conditions for much
of the day with the fewest clouds during the last couple of hours of
daylight. Highs will be in the 90s with Heat Index values largely in
the mid 90s with spotty values up to 105 in the southwest toward the
tri-state area.

More widespread rain chances are on the way tonight and early
Saturday morning. Deep troughing to the north will extend through
the Ozarks into a favorable enough environment, with MLCAPE up to
2500 J/Kg and CIN up to -200 J/Kg. Models aren`t handling this well,
and show every solution from a large bowing system to a thin line to
nothing at all. However, as Saturday progresses, instability will
increase and more support from an inverted trough to the southwest
increases the potential for and confidence in more widespread
activity later in the day Saturday and into Saturday night. Due to
the uncertainty and potential for limited coverage, PoPs max out
around 50% for this event.

That being said, the Storm Prediction Center has included areas
north of I-44 in a Marginal and Slight risk (1-2/5) for severe
thunderstorms. As mentioned, instability will be on the increase
throughout the day (up to 3500 J/Kg) before the warm front to the
south lifts through, which will usher in ample moisture and moderate
lift. Winds will be veering near the surface, and up to 45 kts of
deep layer shear may be present. This environment will allow for
semi-discrete supercells capable of producing damaging winds,
potentially hail, and maybe even tornadoes. Again, this threat is
maximized/limited to areas north of I-44, and is still a bit murky
in terms of confidence. This is a "possible but not guaranteed" sort
of situation. We`re caught in the middle of two separate systems,
and how they interact and evolve as well as how early day convection
plays out will all change the outcome of the evening event.
Hopefully, models come into better agreement today and the synoptic
pattern becomes a little less chaotic.

The WPC follows the SPC almost exactly with Marginal and Slight
(1- 2/4) risks for excessive rainfall north of I-44. Soils are
quite saturated and PWATs are off the charts, so this will
certainly be possible depending on precipitation coverage. Sub-
severe winds may be able to cause damage given the saturated
soils.

If that wasn`t enough, Saturday will also be very hot (which is sort
of why we`re in this situation). Heat Index values will be around or
over 100 with widespread values over 105 south of I-44. A Heat
Advisory may be needed for these areas and would be issued later
today if deemed necessary.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 302 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Precipitation may be ongoing through Sunday morning but will exit
south into AR. Sunday won`t be as hot, with highs in the 80s and
Heat Index values only a few degrees hotter. Enjoy it while you can,
though, because high pressure and ridging build back in early next
week. Heat Index values Monday will range from 90-100 while values
on Tuesday will soar up to 110. If these trends continue, heat
headlines may be needed. Wednesday and Thursday don`t look much
better.

Precipitation chances return mid- to late-week as another trough
moves through behind the ridge. PoPs are currently <50% overall, but
are widespread over several days. We keep getting put in these
situations where we`re mainly experiencing the effects of ridging
(hazardous heat) but the incoming trough and shortwave energy extend
just far enough south to bring precipitation chances despite the
high pressure. So, the cycle continues next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Cloud cover left over from overnight storms across eastern
Kansas and northern Missouri will linger today across the
region. Some breaks in the clouds will occur but at least as
coverage is expected to remain mainly scattered at and below
20-25kft. Surface winds will be southerly and gusty at times to
20-25kts.

A storm system is forecast to moving into the region overnight
(around/after 06z) and bring the potential for thunderstorms
and lower ceilings and visibilities. While storms are possible,
the lack of some ingredients for widespread storms limits
confidence and coverage.

In advance of the system, low level winds across far southern
Missouri and the KBBG terminal will produce LLWS from 07-12Z.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 302 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024


Record High Temperatures:

July 2:
KSGF: 100/1933
KJLN: 103/2011

July 3:
KSGF: 98/2011
KJLN: 100/2011


Record Low Temperatures:

July 1:
KVIH: 56/1951


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 29:
KSGF: 80/1936

July 2:
KSGF: 76/1933

July 3:
KSGF: 77/2018

July 4:
KSGF: 78/1901

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Nelson
LONG TERM...Nelson
AVIATION...Hatch
CLIMATE...Nelson