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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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553 FXUS64 KSHV 010547 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1247 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1041 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Decided to make a few changes to POPS and overnight lows based on current trends and short-term progs. Also, added some fog to our SE Oklahoma, SW/South-Central Arkansas zones, and portions of NE Louisiana overnight. In addition to this, decided to let the Excessive Heat Warning expire, but replace most of it with a Heat Advisory, and kept a Heat Advisory in place for all of our East Texas zones. For the remainder of the night, expect precip to continue to diminish, with overnight lows generally in the mid to upper 70s. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday Night) Issued at 246 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Nice little clusters of showers and thunderstorms are going from SE OK across S AR and just edging into N LA now. We see spotty convection farther south. All this activity is trying to establish a little cool pool north, but lots of holes in that cheese so far. The HRRR does a decent job of representing the areas of concern and drifting southward into the evening as well. This rain should make for a slightly cooler day tomorrow with heat index 105 or less for at least S AR. Elsewhere, heat calculations will generally be in the 106 to 110 range with another heat advisory for Monday. We may see another warning upgrade if we end up with some compressional heating tomorrow, but for now considering current warning, we are sticking with another heat advisory for Monday for our counties in OK/TX and all our LA parishes, excluding S AR to some extent. Barring some decent rainfall, it will be another night with some near record warmth for lows at most locales, but some rain cooled areas will be possible. Highs will be in the middle 90 range for most under added clouds and the humidity will still running soupy, boosting those HI numbers. The chance for more convection continues along and south of I-20 for the most part on Monday and then dries up going forward for a while. Lows tomorrow night should see the benefit of the weak front with a little cooler range for lows in the low to mid 70s on Tuesday as the 1027mb core stays in the Great Lakes. /24/ && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 246 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Much like this last little air mass, we are grazed by the northeast winds briefly and see just one day and one night of slightly cooler temps. Mid to late week will continue with mid to upper 90s and lows in the mid to upper 70s widespread once again. The sea breeze will spread into the parishes under the building upper high and not much else during midweek. The models are trending closer to average for next weekend as a deeper and stronger upper low edges another front down into our neck of the woods. So model pops are in the 20-40 range again by the end of the forecast period keeping back the triple digits perhaps. /24/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1243 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Patchy fog and IFR/LIFR flight conditions may affect a few isolated locations early in the period, most notably KELD. However, flight conditions should improve back into the VFR range at all terminals by 01/18z. Another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon hours, particularly across East Texas and much of Western and Central Louisiana. KTYR, KGGG, KSHV, and KLFK should be the TAF sites most likely to be affected by convection. The showers and thunderstorms should gradually dissipate after 02/00z. CN && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 77 100 81 99 / 0 10 0 10 MLU 72 97 77 97 / 0 10 0 20 DEQ 72 96 75 97 / 0 0 0 10 TXK 73 100 78 101 / 0 0 0 10 ELD 69 97 75 97 / 0 0 0 10 TYR 78 100 79 99 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 77 99 78 98 / 0 10 0 10 LFK 77 98 76 96 / 0 10 0 20 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ059-070. LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ001>006-010>014- 017>022. OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ077. TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ096-097-108>112- 124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...09