Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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977 FXUS64 KSHV 261107 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 607 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday through Thursday) Issued at 356 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Quiet across the region this morning, but the weather looks to become more active today. The center of the aforementioned ridge will remain across the Four Corners region. The eastern fringe of the ridge is forecast to erode, allowing for more of a northerly flow aloft to develop over most of our area. The forecast should remain dry over most of the region at least through the morning hours, but things get interesting afterwards. My current thinking is that convection will be on-going across Southern Missouri/Northern Arkansas this morning along a trough and associated cool front. As the trough/front start to shift southward along the flow, a line of convection will surge ahead bringing convection into the region later on today. There are some timing issues with this as some progs are bringing convection into the region during the mid morning hours, with others holding off until the late afternoon and evening hours. At this time, will side with the later arrival of the MCS, which is what the HRRR is suggesting. Because of the expected later arrival, temperatures will likely warm into the mid to upper 90s again today, with a few isolated 100 degree readings. Therefore, a Heat Advisory remains in place through 7 PM this evening. Of course, if the precip arrives earlier, this could change high temps for today, but the next shift should have ample time to adjust if necessary. As the convection moves into the region, can`t rule out some strong gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall. One thing of note, some progs have an additional line of convection developing during the late evening hours and overnight into Thursday morning along the front as it arrives into the region. The front will likely stall and/or wash out over the area on Thursday as upper ridging looks to re-establish itself over the region. Can`t rule out more diurnal convection near the existing boundary, but upper ridging should make for a drier forecast. Believe at this time, the northern and eastern half of the region should see some slightly cooler temps, so heat products may only be needed for our East Texas and Western Louisiana zones. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 356 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Drier conditions will return Friday and Saturday, as the center of the upper ridge moves back over the region. Additional heat products will be likely, as afternoon highs will return into the mid 90s to around 100 degrees. Upper ridging will remain in place on Sunday and Monday, but the center of the ridge will slide westward over North Texas. Long range models are suggesting there could be enough weakness over the region for some widespread convection to develop with daytime heating. But, these chances look to diminish as we move into the middle portions of next week, as the center of the ridge shifts back over the region. Despite the rain chances, it still looks like hot and humid conditions will continue. Additional heat products will be likely with afternoon highs remaining in the mid 90s to near 100 degrees. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 602 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Given much greater confidence, I have expanded SHRA and TSRA coverage into the afternoon, as it still looks like a disturbance will move into the region. Skies will remain mostly VFR during this timeframe, before some MVFR CIGS settle in begin this rain past 27/09z. /44/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 98 77 95 78 / 20 40 20 10 MLU 98 73 92 74 / 50 50 30 0 DEQ 96 73 93 73 / 30 30 10 0 TXK 98 75 95 77 / 30 40 10 0 ELD 96 71 91 72 / 40 30 10 0 TYR 98 77 97 78 / 20 30 10 0 GGG 98 76 95 77 / 20 30 10 0 LFK 98 77 95 76 / 20 30 20 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073. LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022. OK...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077. TX...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....20 AVIATION...44