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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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113 FXUS64 KSHV 020553 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1253 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday Night) Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 The synoptic scale pattern this afternoon is characterized by a longwave trough extending from the far NE Pacific southward into the Desert SW and eastward into the Central and Northern Great Plains, with a strong ridge of high pressure located downstream across the Southern Great Plains and Deep South. Another trough is noted across the NE Coast. In the lower levels, an expansive area of high pressure extends across the Great Lakes and Midwest, with its ridge influence pushing into the ArkLaTex and ArkLaMiss regions, noted by a subtle cool frontal boundary. Based on the analysis above, hot and humid conditions persist across the Four State Region as subsidence aloft continues under the strong H5 ridge mentioned above, keeping heat headlines in place. The exception has been across most of Southwest Arkansas where temperatures have remained "cooler" in the vicinity of the backdoor cool frontal boundary. For the rest of this afternoon and this evening, expect convection to continue to develop near and ahead of the sfc frontal boundary, which will roughly range from areas along a Texarkana to Shreveport to Jena line and westward as MLCAPE values peak around 2000-3000J/kg wih dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s. Thunderstorms will be single-cell in nature, with a brief threat for small hail and gusty winds. Activity will dissipate after sunset, yielding a partly cloudy and humid night with low temperatures in the upper 70s to around 80. For Tuesday, the sfc frontal boundary is expected to be draped across western zones of the CWA before taking on a gradual retreat northward and eventually either washing out or leaving evidence of a very residual sfc trough. This may allow for convective development again Tuesday afternoon as the overall lower level airmass remains moist and unstable. With hardly any change in the mid/upper level ridge, subsidence aloft will likely hinder overall coverage. Temperatures are expected to be a few degrees warmer than on Monday, resulting in the need for additional heat headlines. Refer to the NPWSHV product for details on heat headlines. Kovacik && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 At the start of the long term period on Wednesday, a mid/upper level ridge of high pressure will begin to amplify across the E Pacific/Southern West Coast, with troughing downstream across the Rockies and into the Plains. This will help push the persistant ridge across the Deep South eastward towards the Southeast, with sfc high pressure influence also beginning to shift east. Despite this slight shift in the pattern, expect enough of a mid/upper level ridge influence to keep the Four State Region hot and humid. While isolated, diurnally driven convection cannot be entirely ruled out, most locations will remain dry. Heat headlines will likely again be needed. By Thursday, the upper level ridge will continue to shift eastward and dampen as troughing deepens across the Great Plains. While Thursday will continue to remain hot and dry, by Friday a frontal boundary will be approaching northern zone, bringing the chance for some wider-spread rain and thunderstorms. Overall QPF amounts do not look very impressive at this point in time, but it may result in the best chance for locations to receive some rainfall as compared to recent weeks. Overall ensemble guidance is suggestive of a trough influence continuing across the middle part of the country through the weekend, which may allow the frontal system to continue to sink south across the area. There will remain some uncertainty, of course, this far out, as the pattern evolution across the middle CONUS appears dependent upon the evolution of potentially high amplitude ridge along the West Coast. For now, have at least reflected a chance for widespread precip over the weekend, with temperatures also a few degrees cooler than previous days. Kovacik && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1248 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Light and variable winds are expected initially before becoming southeasterly after 02/12z. Sustained wind speeds should remain below 10 kts. Otherwise, VFR flight conditions should prevail at all TAF sites. CN && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 100 82 100 81 / 20 20 10 0 MLU 98 78 98 78 / 10 10 20 0 DEQ 97 76 98 76 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 99 80 101 79 / 0 0 10 0 ELD 98 76 99 77 / 0 0 10 0 TYR 100 79 99 79 / 10 10 0 0 GGG 99 79 99 78 / 20 20 0 0 LFK 98 76 97 76 / 20 20 20 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-060-061- 071>073. Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ059- 070. LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ006-014. Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>005-010>013-017>022. OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077. TX...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096- 097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. && $$ SHORT TERM...23 LONG TERM....23 AVIATION...09