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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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431 FXUS64 KSHV 300753 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 253 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Monday) Issued at 225 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Upper-air analysis this morning is showing high pressure across our region. While it was elongated into the eastern CONUS, it has started to retrograde some to the west. Meanwhile at the surface, a weak frontal boundary extends from the Texas Panhandle east through central Oklahoma and central Arkansas before lifting towards the northeast. With the ridge pushing west, this frontal boundary should allow for some convection to develop along it that will drift into our region late this afternoon. High resolution models are showing any activity will be very isolated in nature. The best chances for any convection will be across southeast Oklahoma, our southwest Arkansas counties and then central and north central Louisiana. The Heat Advisory will remain in effect for the entire region through this evening. There does remain some uncertainty if all areas will reach criteria with the convection expected. Thinking that the convection will hold off till late enough in the evening that we will reach Heat Advisory criteria prior to the thunderstorm activity. Mild temperatures will remain in place for tonight, with lows ranging from the lower 70s, mainly for areas that see thunderstorms, to the mid and upper 70s elsewhere. By Monday, the frontal boundary will be stationary over portions of the area, right now it looks like it will extend from far northeast Texas into north central Louisiana. This will allow for some slightly cooler temperatures to settle in for areas to the northeast of the frontal boundary. Areas behind the front will see temperatures in the lower 90s while the rest of the area will remain in the mid to upper 90s. There remains some uncertainty to the exact location of the frontal boundary, so any heat products for Monday will become tricky. As such, I have elected to wait for further guidance to come in to determine the best areas for any such product, but it does appear that there will be some sort of product needed for areas. /33/ && .LONG TERM... (Monday Night through Sunday) Issued at 225 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 The "cooler" air for portions of the area on Monday will begin to retreat on Tuesday and for sure by Wednesday with dangerous heat index values returning to the entire area. To be honest, the upper-level death ridge does not show any signs of letting up next week. So bottom line, it is going to be hot with heat products likely through the week. On top of this, precipitation chances seem slim for the area, with the best chances being across our far southern zones with any sea-breeze convection that develops. Long range guidance is indicating a pattern change through as we head into next weekend. All we can do with that information is hope though. /33/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 VFR conditions should prevail initially but southerly flow may bring low clouds and MVFR ceilings to the East Texas terminals along and south of Interstate 20 in the 30/08z-30/15z time frame. VFR flight conditions are generally expected to prevail for the remainder of the period. However, scattered showers and thunderstorms should develop across Southeast Oklahoma and Southwest Arkansas after 30/18z and will gradually move south and southwest across the area. The convection could bring a very brief window of MVFR flight conditions. However, convective coverage is expected to be somewhat spotty, so confidence in thunderstorms occurring at any individual TAF site is somewhat low. Any convective that does develop should gradually dissipate by 01/03z. CN && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 98 80 96 78 / 20 10 30 0 MLU 97 77 94 71 / 30 20 10 0 DEQ 94 73 92 70 / 40 10 10 0 TXK 97 77 95 74 / 30 20 20 0 ELD 96 73 92 68 / 40 20 10 0 TYR 97 78 97 78 / 10 10 20 0 GGG 97 78 96 76 / 10 10 30 0 LFK 97 77 96 76 / 20 10 40 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-059>061- 070>073. LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014- 017>022. OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077. TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112- 124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. && $$ SHORT TERM...33 LONG TERM....33 AVIATION...09