414
FXUS62 KTAE 290828
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
428 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...


.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 243 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Upper level high pressure begins to nose in from the west today,
while at the surface high pressure hold. Ample moisture remains in
place, leading to yet another day of showers and thunderstorms. The
threat for heavy rain, and perhaps nuisance to localized flash
flooding, will be possible as PWATs are forecast to be around 2.0-
2.4 inches. This will especially hold true for slow moving or
training storms. Gusty winds also remain possible in stronger
showers and storms. Highs for Saturday will be in the mid 90s, with
heat index values of 100-106 degrees across our GA and AL counties.
The FL counties may be a touch higher and generally range 103-108,
with smattering of higher values up to 113. Confidence is low to
medium on this occuring, as showers and thunderstorms could
fluctuate the temperatures. Opted to no hoist a Heat Advisory at
this time, but that could be warranted depending on how conditions
look by the morning update. Nonetheless, it will still be quite hot
and muggy outside. Make sure to drink plenty of water, wear light
clothes, and take care of yourselves by practicing heat safety.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 243 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Mid and upper level ridging centered over the ArkLaTex region will
lead to an anticyclonic wave breaking episode across the eastern
conus starting late Sunday and into Monday. This will lead to a
digging trough through the Mid-Atlantic states on Monday. This
will lead to a subsequent frontal boundary pushing southeast
through the deep south during the day on Monday. With deep
tropical moisture remaining in place across the region on both
Sunday and Monday, widespread showers and thunderstorms are
expected both days, with the highest chances remaining across the
Florida Panhandle and Big Bend where seabreeze interactions will
likely take place. Some CAM guidance does show a potential for
excessive rainfall amounts; however, the coverage is not
widespread, and some models show these high totals in different
locations across the forecast area. This has lead to some
uncertainty in forecast QPF totals through the short term
forecast. Currently WPC is forecasting widespread rainfall totals
of 1-2 inches through the next 5 days. With PWATs in the 2-2.25
inch range over the next several days, locally higher totals are
expected. Overall, high temperatures will reach the low to mid 90s
on Sunday and Monday, and lows will generally remain in the mid
70s.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 243 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

The aforementioned mid and upper level ridge will continue to
remain entrenched across the southern conus through the end of the
work week, with deep tropical moisture lingering over the area
through at least Wednesday before surface high pressure centered
over New York provides some northeast flow over the region. This
will bring in dry air from the previous frontal passage earlier in
the work week southwestward into North Florida. The dry air in
place over the region will effectively lower PoPs below
climatological levels for the region and lead to more hot weather
areawide. High temperatures will likely surge into the upper 90s
to near 100 once again for the holiday weekend. With many
subtleties expected with the placement of the dry air, this could
change through the extended forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 243 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024


A few isolated showers and thunderstorms are meandering over the
service area this morning, while satellite shows a varying sky
state of mostly clear to partly cloud skies west of the Flint and
Apalachicola Rivers and partly to mostly cloud east of that line.
Cigs have generally been reporting VFR this morning, though that
could change for at least KABY and KVLD where MVFR or even IFR
cigs are possible. Opted to remove the mention for 6SM BR for
these areas and hint at the possibility for the lower cigs. TAFs
may need to be amended for those should the lower clouds come to
fruition between 08-12Z. Any clouds that do develop should lift
after sunrise, placing us back in our typical summer time weather
pattern. Showers and storms will be possible during the afternoon
and early evening hours and may be possible of reducing cigs and
vis at times.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 243 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Southwesterly flow around 10 knots and seas around 3 to 4 feet
will prevail through most of the weekend until a weak frontal
boundary pushes into the Gulf and winds become light and variable
early next week. Wave heights of 3-4 feet will predominantly be
attributed to the tropical disturbance in the southern Gulf of
Mexico that is currently crossing the Yucatan Peninsula.
Scattered showers and storms are expected through the weekend and
early next week with activity generally greatest in the overnight
and early morning hours as the diurnal land breeze circulation is
at its peak.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 243 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Typical summertime weather is in store for us, with warm and muggy
conditions and afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
Storms will be capable of producing gusty and erratic winds in
addition to heavy rain. Dispersions over the next few days look to
be fair to generally good. There are no fire weather concerns.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 243 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Widespread forecast rainfall totals through the next 5 days are
generally expected to remain around 1-2 inches, with locally
higher totals possible. This is primarily due to deep tropical
moisture remaining in place over the region through the middle of
next week. There are currently no flooding concerns at this time;
however, localized flash flooding from training thunderstorms will
be possible, especially in poor drainage and urban environments
due to very efficient rain processes and high rainfall rates.


&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   94  76  93  76 /  80  30  70  50
Panama City   91  79  91  78 /  60  30  60  50
Dothan        94  75  93  76 /  70  40  60  40
Albany        94  75  94  75 /  60  40  60  40
Valdosta      94  75  93  76 /  70  40  70  40
Cross City    92  75  93  75 /  90  50  70  40
Apalachicola  89  79  90  78 /  60  20  60  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ this morning for
     FLZ108-112-114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KR
SHORT TERM...Bunker
LONG TERM....Bunker
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...Bunker
FIRE WEATHER...KR
HYDROLOGY...Bunker