429
FXUS62 KTAE 300052
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
852 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

...New UPDATE...

...INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING IN PARTS OF SW GA DOWN TO THE FL STATE LINE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 843 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Clusters of slow-moving thunderstorms with embedded heavy rain
rates have been ongoing this evening across parts of SW GA just
east of the AL border down to northern Leon County. Instances of
flash flooding are possible with this activity over the next
couple hrs or so as these cells gradually track eastward. If you
are under a Flood Advisory of Flash Flood Warning, please avoid
any flooded roads, which are especially difficult to see at night.

Convection likely persists for the first half of tonight before
diminishing after midnight, per the latest HRRR run. Therefore,
the main changes to tonight`s forecast were increasing rain
chances where the axis of highest precipitation is currently in
place and added the explicit mention of "heavy rain" in our hourly
wx grids that coincide with definite PoPs of around 90% or more.
Hourly temperatures on the front end were adjusted as well to
account for the rain-cooled air mainly across the western half of
the Tri-State area.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 330 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Ridging aloft continues nudging in from the west through the
near term with a moist unstable airmass remaining in place over the
forecast area. Garden variety pop up storms are possible areawide
tomorrow with PoP`s generally maxing out in the 60-70% areawide.
PWAT`s ranging from 2.2-2.5" support efficient rainmakers, hinting
that a localized nuisance / flash flooding threat is possible with
these storms if they are slow moving and / or stall.

Heat remains a concern as well tomorrow, though there are some
caveats. Heat indices across our FL counties generally range from
108-112 with a few areas even reaching 113+, supportive of a heat
advisory. However, given the large coverage of storms tomorrow
during peak heating, rain cooled air with scattered anvil debris
from these storms may hinder most of the areas from realizing these
temperatures. Our SE AL and SW GA counties have heat indices > 108
as well, particularly in their counties bordering FL, though
uncertainty remains the same. Regardless, temperatures are expected
to once again be hot and muggy tomorrow afternoon. Make sure to wear
light clothes tomorrow, drink plenty of water, and limit time
outside if possible.

Tonights low temperatures are expected to drop to the mid to upper
70s with afternoon highs tomorrow reaching the mid 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Monday night)
Issued at 330 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

The short term period looks a bit unsettled with mid to upper level
ridging pushing over to the west and a weak front stalling out over
the area. How far south the front makes it is unclear at this point,
but it will likely create a local focus for shower and thunderstorm
activity With the most coverage expected Monday afternoon and
evening. A few strong storms will be possible along with isolated
pockets of heavy rainfall. Highs are forecast in the low to mid 90s,
however areas with the highest coverage of rain and clouds may end
up a few degrees below that. Lows are forecast in the mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 330 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Ridging begins to build back overhead during the long term,
gradually lowering our rain chances through mid week. A few showers
and storms will still be possible, particularly along the seabreeze
in the afternoon, but widespread convection is not expected once the
ridge settles in. This will also allow temperatures to soar once
again, reaching the mid to upper 90s again by the end of the week.
Lows are forecast to remain fairly steady in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 703 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Shower and thunderstorm activity today will begin to diminish
after sunset with the remaining storms ending around 04Z-06Z.
During the overnight hours, winds will become light to calm. It is
possible for patchy fog to develop at our inland terminals but
confidence is too low to include in the TAFs.
Showers/thunderstorms may develop in the late morning into early
afternoon; however showers and thunderstorms are more likely
expected to return during the afternoon Sunday, hence VCTS at all
terminals, with higher confidence around 20z for TSRA at most
terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 331 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Southwesterly flow around 10 knots and seas around 3 to 4 feet will
prevail through most of the weekend until a weak frontal boundary
pushes into the Gulf and winds become light and variable early next
week. Wave heights of 3-4 feet will predominantly be attributed to
the tropical disturbance in the southern Gulf of Mexico that is
currently crossing the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered showers and
storms are expected through the weekend and early next week with
activity generally greatest in the overnight and early morning hours
as the diurnal land breeze circulation is at its peak.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 331 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Tomorrow, isolated storms are expected to occur across the
area in the afternoon hours with gusty and erratic storms near and
within them. This will continue over the next few days as a moist
and unstable airmass remains over the forecast area. Transport winds
over the next few days will be variable in direction ranging from
around 5-10mph with increasing mixing heights each afternoon. Fair
to generally good dispersions are expected areawide. At this time,
there are no fire weather concerns at this time.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 243 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Widespread forecast rainfall totals through the next 5 days are
generally expected to remain around 1-2 inches, with locally
higher totals possible. This is primarily due to deep tropical
moisture remaining in place over the region through the middle of
next week. There are currently no flooding concerns at this time;
however, localized flash flooding from training thunderstorms will
be possible, especially in poor drainage and urban environments
due to very efficient rain processes and high rainfall rates.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   77  93  76  93 /  80  70  40  70
Panama City   80  91  78  92 /  30  70  50  60
Dothan        76  93  75  95 /  60  70  30  50
Albany        76  94  75  95 /  60  70  30  60
Valdosta      76  94  76  94 /  60  70  30  60
Cross City    76  93  75  91 /  50  70  40  60
Apalachicola  80  91  78  88 /  30  70  50  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Sunday for
     FLZ108-112-114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...IG3
NEAR TERM...Worster
SHORT TERM...Merrifield
LONG TERM....Merrifield
AVIATION...Montgomery
MARINE...Merrifield
FIRE WEATHER...Worster
HYDROLOGY...Bunker