992
FXUS63 KTOP 050807
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
307 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry today into Saturday before storms chances increase
  Saturday afternoon/evening. Some storms could be strong to
  severe and produce damaging wind gusts.

- Additional showers and storms impact the area Sunday into
  Monday. The severe risk is low, but rounds of storms over
  saturated soils could lead to an increased risk for flooding.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

West-northwest flow resides across the Central Plains this morning
as a closed upper low spins over the Upper Midwest. Drier air
continues to build in behind yesterday`s front with dewpoints in the
upper 50s to low 60s across the area. Surface high pressure
will be in control of the region today, leading to a pleasant
summer day with highs in the 80s. A passing perturbation
increases mid-level ascent and saturation which could generate
isolated showers this afternoon, although abundant dry air below
700mb should limit precipitation from reaching the ground.

Southerly low-level flow returns on Saturday ahead of several waves
of energy that are progged to move through the region this weekend
with the first shortwave coming Saturday afternoon and evening. A
few storms could impact north central Kansas Saturday afternoon
before convection that initializes across western/central
Kansas and southern Nebraska advances southeast during the late
afternoon and evening hours. Instability isn`t progged to be
very robust (MUCAPE of less than 1000 J/kg), but 30 kts of
effective shear and inverted-V soundings support severe wind
gusts, especially if convection organizes into a linear mode.
Best chances for severe weather are across north central and
central Kansas before any convective complex is expected to
weaken as it continues southeast during the late evening.
Storms look to be progressive enough to keep the flooding threat
low with this round. A couple more waves on the heals of the
first bring additional storm chances (50-70%) Sunday into Monday
morning. Shear and instability will support some strong to
marginally severe storms during this timeframe. Increasing
moisture content and the potential for a few rounds of storms
could lead to flooding, especially given saturated soils and
elevated rivers, creeks, and streams from recent rainfall.
Details in regards to amounts and placement of heaviest
rainfall remain uncertain, but medium-range guidance shows the
potential for 0.5-1.5" of rain across the area. NBM has a 60-75%
probability of 0.5" of rain and a 30-50% chance of 1" of rain
through Monday morning for the forecast area.

Conditions dry out Monday afternoon into the middle of the week.
Temperatures remain slightly below average for this time of year
with highs generally in the 80s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

VFR conditions prevail. Northwest winds increase this afternoon
with gusts around 20kts before winds weaken again by 00z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Flanagan